ESTP course on International Trade in Goods Statistics 2 – 6 February 2015 Point 9 of the agenda Revisions to International Trade in Goods Statistics

Outline Why do we monitor revisions? What do we monitor? How big is a large revision? What should we do when we have a large revision? Informing users about large revisions

Revisions International Trade in Goods Statistics, like many published statistics, must balance the need for timely information with accuracy. A consequence of this is the need for revision of trade in goods data after their first publication. Most revisions improve the quality of the data as they correct erroneous values or replace estimated data with data collected from enterprises.

Why monitor revisions? - 1 The Economic and Financial Affairs Council Report ‘2011 EFC Status Report on Information Requirements in EMU’ noted impact of revisions as an outstanding issue for International Trade in Goods data in particular because of their effect on Principal European Economic Indicators. To comply with the 'Guidelines on communication of major statistical revisions in the European Union'

Why monitor revisions? - 2 Quality improvement Inform both public and institutional users of the effect of revisions

Revisions monitored - 1 Revision rates based on subsequent data submissions Revision rate = absolute ((new_value – previous_value) / previous_value) % (national impact) Revision value = absolute (new_value – previous_value) (EU impact)

Revisions monitored - 2 Revision rates based on cumulative data submissions Revision rate = absolute ((last_available_value – first_value) / first_value) % (national impact) Revision value = absolute (last_available_value – first_value) (EU impact)

When and what should be communicated? The November 2012 Intrastat/Extrastat Committee agreed on the thresholds to be used to classify the size of revisions and the actions to be taken depending on the size of the revision. Specifically NSAs would pre-announce to Eurostat any changes at the total trade level between subsequent data transmissions that result in a revision exceeding the level 2 threshold.

Thresholds 'Level 1' 'Level 2’   'Level 1' 'Level 2’ Subsequent revisions (between subsequent submissions) The threshold would equal the function: y + 37,5x =< 318 with a revision rate x (measured in percentage points) and a revision value y (measured in Mio. €). y + 30x =< 955, Cumulative revisions (between the first and the last available submissions) y + 41,67x =< 500 y + 30x =< 900,

Thresholds – subsequent revisions

Thresholds – cumulative revisions

Pre-announcement -what MSs are required to provide information on Which trade flow the revisions is for Which months the revisions is for How large the revision is What the reason for the revision is What effect the revision has on associated statistics, for example Balance of Payments or National Accounts

Pre-announcement - when The pre-announcement should be made: up to 1 week before the data delivery itself - or at the latest on the day the data is sent - for any reportable revisions occurring as part of the routine monthly data delivery cycle, up to 1 month before the data delivery itself for any reportable revisions that are known in advance, for example those that might occur because of a change in methodology.

Metadata Monthly publication of metadata highlighting different levels of revision, based on the agreed value and percentage change thresholds, using stars and shading in variations of green. The reports show revision, by Member State/EFTA country between subsequent data submissions and between the first data submission and the most recent (cumulative revision) .

Example of metadata

Thank you for your attention Any questions ?