Systems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology

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Systems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology Influence Diagram Modeling of Decision Making in a Dynamic Game Setting Kai Virtanen, Tuomas Raivio and Raimo P. Hämäläinen Systems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology

Maneuvering decisions in one-on-one air combat game ¼ t=Dt Decision maker (DM) t=Dt ¼ t=0 t=0 Adversary (AD) Find the best maneuvering sequence for the DM with respect to the goals 1. Avoid being captured by the AD 2. Capture the AD by taking into account - Preferences of a pilot - Uncertainties - Dynamic decision environment - Behavior of the AD Influence diagrams (IDs) representing the control decision of the DM: Single stage ID (Virtanen et al. 1999), pilot’s short-term decision making Multistage ID (Virtanen et al. 2001), preference optimal flight paths against given trajectories a nonlinear programming -based solution approach

ID for a single control decision Adversary's Present State Adversary's Maneuver Adversary’s State Measurement Present Combat State Present Measurement Combat State Situation Evaluation Present State Maneuver State Present Threat Situation Assessment Threat Situation Assessment Evolution of the players’ states described by a set of differential equations Solution: The control leading to the highest expected utility The behavior of the AD ?

ID game for a single control decision DM’s belief about AD’s viewpoint Solution: - Discrete controls Þ Matrix game - Continuous controls Þ Nonlinear programming The best control of the DM against the worst possible action of the AD Utilization: Air combat simulators Future research: Multistage ID game Implies information structure Combat state DM's viewpoint