Income distribution: flash estimates 2016 (FE) Item 3.6 of the agenda DSS Meeting 3 and 4 October 2017

Timeliness of social statistics Used in Europe 2020, the European Semester and various high level policy frameworks Income comes late Double action: Advance the SILC data delivery Flash estimates

Flash Estimates 2017 Income year 2016 AROP, QSR, D1-D9 Produced through Microsimulation (Euromod). Three main elements: changes in employment, uprating factors, changes in the tax benefit systems) Macro-economic time series modelling (METS) Assessment Quality in the process Quality of the output Historical performance Plausibility

Communication "Magnitude direction scale" Advantages and drawbacks MDC AROP(pp) QSR Deciles (%)   Decrease in inequality indicators=green Increase in positional indicators = green [---] <-2 <-0.6 <-5 [--] [-2,-1[ [-0.6,-0.3[ [-5,-2[ [-] [-1,0] [-0.3,0] [-2,0] [+] ]0, 1] ]0, 0.3] ]0, 2] [++] ]1,2] ]0.3,0.6] ]2,5] [+++] >2 >0.6 >5 MDC (change class) communicated only if the estimated change is significant Advantages and drawbacks - Discussed with users and producers

Consultation with the Member States Task force SILC WG and DSS Validation in two phases Methods: SILC WG Results: summer bilateral consultations

Publication as experimental statistics Puts the basis for receiving feedback from users and the research community We cannot expect to capture perfectly changes in the SILC estimates: => the accuracy of the indicators depends on differences in the input datasets, model assumptions (e.g. policies simulated under microsimulation ).

Country Income Year AROP QSR D1 D3 MEDIAN D7 D9 BE 2016 u ]0,0.3] ns ]2,5] BG >5 CZ DK* EE IE [-0,6,-0,3[ EL ES HR ]0,2] LV LT LU HU NL* AT PL <-2 <-0.6 PT [-1,0] RO ]0,1] SI SK FI SE UK   DE 2015 FR IT CY MT

Main messages Overall increase of the disposable income AROP and QSR often non-significant Importance of analysing the deciles Interest of looking at time series

Temporal perspective

3 main documents are available As experimental statistics under the responsibility of Eurostat Experimental results Methodological note Temporal perspective (graphs)

Ways forward Collect feedback, including yours Present to users Analyse the results when the 2016 SILC data would be available Produce the new cycle June, if possible Microsimulation versus macro-economic modelling Better dissemination and narrative Improve the models (uncertainty, alignment, plausibility)

Future participation of MS Feedback Provision of data- streamline the process Validation The DSS are invited to comment - on the methods used and the results achieved - on the future steps