The US-EU Race for Leadership of S&T: Qualitative and Quantitative Indicators Duane Shelton and Geoff Holdridge WTEC, Inc. Baltimore, Maryland, USA To be presented at the Ninth International Conference on Scientometrics and Informetrics, Beijing, August 25, 2003

Acknowledgements To: And 400-plus expert panelists, thousands of foreign hosts.

Purpose of Paper Both the US and the EU have goals for world leadership in S&T Methods of evaluating leadership Quantitative data on leadership -- from EU, OECD, NSF, ISI, Eurostat, et al. Qualitative data on leadership -- from our own WTEC studies Conclusions: Who is ahead, and what are the trends?

I. US Goals for S&T Leadership Top goal: “Maintaining world leadership in science, mathematics, and engineering...” (President Truman, 1950) “The United States is today the undisputed world leader in science and technology.” (U.S. National Academy of Sciences) But, when we sent American peer reviewers abroad, one could indeed dispute. Actually, Bush Administration has not yet made a global statement of S&T goals

EU Goals for S&T Leadership Make Europe the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world by 2010 (Lisbon Council 2000) Restructure R&D into a European Research Area (2000) Increase EU spending on R&D to 3% of GDP by 2010 Framework Program 6 provides 17.5 billion Euros for 2002-2006

II. Quantitative Methods Most input measures like total investments in R&D favor the U.S. Here the focus will be on output indicators, which are a better measure of S&T leadership: Papers Citations Patents New PhD production Nobel Prizes High-tech market share Overall trade balance

Output Indicator-1: Publications in the World’s Leading Journals Source: ISI 2002. China = PRC + HK + Taiwan.

EU Surges Ahead of the US in Publications Source: ISI, 2002

Disciplines Led by the EU, U. S. , and AP Region Disciplines Led by the EU, U.S., and AP Region. Metric is papers in the world’s leading journals. Data from ISI, which retains copyright.

Output Indicator-2: Relative Impacts Technical papers usually have a dozen or more citations to other papers in their references or footnotes. This method, originated by Eugene Garfield at ISI, counts citations to a particular paper from others. Influential papers have lots of such citations. This parameter is often normalized by the average number of citations in a field or country to get the “relative impact” of: paper, researcher, institute, or whole country

US is Ahead of EU, Some Countries Are Gaining Switzerland leads the world; U. S. leads world in only 4 of 20 S&T fields on ISI CD

But, Americans Tend to Cite Mostly American Papers

Output Indicator-3: International Patents These are inventions patented all three offices: U.S., EU and Japan. Source: (OECD, 2002). The U. S. leads the EU, but not by much.

Output Indicator-4: Production of S&E PhDs Source: NSB, 2002. EU (Part) includes only Germany, France, and the UK. With all EU countries, the European curve is far ahead at 39,021 in 1999.

Output Indicator–5: Residence of Nobel Prize Winners in Science (Physics, Chemistry and Medicine) The U. S. is far ahead of the EU, but…

Birthplace of Nobel Prize Winners in Science The EU is becoming more competitive in this metric.

Output Indicator-6: High-Tech Trade Surplus and Market Share

Output Indicator-6 High-Tech Market Share; Fields Where U.S. is Strong

Output Indicator-6 High-Tech Market Share Fields where EU is Strong

Output Indicator-7 Overall International Trade Surplus, U. S Output Indicator-7 Overall International Trade Surplus, U.S. Trade Deficit in Goods was $470 Billion in 2002 In 2002 the largest deficit was with China ($103 billion). It was $82 billion with the EU.

US vs. EU in the International Market Place

A Knowledge-Based Indicator: Internet Growth is Leveling Off Since the EU goals include leading in knowledge-based economy, Internet usage is a relevant indicator

U.S. Is Far Ahead, But Its Growth Stopped in 2002, Rapid Increase Continues in EU Data: www.isc.org

III. Qualitative Methods: ITRI International Technology Assessments ITRI conducts public studies of S&T abroad using study tours by experts for: Assessment of status and trends relative to US Technology transfer Finding opportunities for international cooperation Started by the US in 1983 when Japanese captured high-tech international markets and increased investments in R&D

Time Line for a WTEC Single-Area Study

An WTEC Delegation of American Engineers But the U.S. is a very diverse place.

Sample WTEC Findings

Fields Which US Does Not Lead

More Fields Not Led by the US

Table II. Recent WTEC Assessments Covering EU Countries   Table II. Recent WTEC Assessments Covering EU Countries Report Title Number of EU Sites Visited Number of Technical Subtopics Rated Sub-topics where Europe Leading / Leading or Equal to U.S. % of Subtopics Where Europe Rated Equal to or Ahead of U.S. JTEC/WTEC Panel Report on Rapid Prototyping in Europe and Japan (3/97) 12 13 1 / 8 62% WTEC Panel Report on Advanced Casting Technologies in Japan and Europe (3/97) 7 14 5 / 11 79% WTEC Panel Report on Power Applications of Superconductivity in Japan and Germany (9/97) 5 (plus a review conference for the German program) ~15 1 / 3 20% WTEC Panel Report on Nanostructure Science and Technology (12/98) 16 (plus workshops in Germany and Sweden covering an additional 13 sites) 6 1 / 4 67% WTEC Panel Report on Global Satellite Communications Technology and Systems (12/98) 12 (plus a conference where other European developments were discussed) N.A. N.A.[1]   [1]

Table II. Recent WTEC Assessments Covering EU Countries--Continued   Table II. Recent WTEC Assessments Covering EU Countries--Continued Report Title Number of EU Sites Visited Number of Technical Subtopics Rated Sub-topics where Europe Leading / Leading or Equal to U.S. % of Subtopics Where Europe Rated Equal to or Ahead of U.S. WTEC/MCC Strategic Technology Tour Report on MEMS and Microsystems in Europe (1/2000) 15 (plus a workshop reviewing other European developments) 9 2 / 6 67% WTEC Panel Report on Wireless Technologies and Information Networks (7/2000) 11 21 3 / 12 57% WTEC Panel Report on Environmentally Benign Manufacturing (4/2001) 17 10 6 / 7 70% WTEC Panel Report on Tissue Engineering Research (1/2002) 23 (plus a workshop covering 3 additional sites) 37 0 / 13[1] 35% WTEC Panel Report on Applications of Molecular and Materials Modeling (1/2002) 25 26 5 / 15 58% Total/Average   151 24 / 79 52%   [  

Table I S&T Output Indicators IV. Conclusions: Who is Leading Overall? Table I S&T Output Indicators Indicator (Data Year) U.S. EU Japan Source 1. Quantity of Papers (2001) 250,128 273,179 70,574 (ISI, 2002) 2. Quality of Papers: Relative Impacts (2001) 1.47 1.06 0.91 3. Triadic Patents, Market Share (1998) 36.03% 33.33% 25.36% (OECD, 2002) 4. S&E Ph.D. Production (1999) 25,953 39,021   6,575 (NSB, 2002)

  Table I S&T Output Indicators--Continued Indicator (Data Year) U.S. EU Japan Source 5. S&T Graduates (1998) 169,311 225,796 25,021 (EC, 2002) 6. Nobel Prizes Physics Chemistry Medicine (1950-2002)   64 38 74 31 33 4 1 (Nobel Prize Internet Archive, 2003) 7. High-Tech Market Share (2000) Percent Aerospace Electronics Office/Computers Pharmaceuticals Instruments 33.79 23.68 23.99 13.13 27.47 33.5 16.38 12.25 32.85 21.21 1.58 18.94 14.68 3.23 17.24 (OECD, 2002) 8. External Trade Balance as a percent of GDP (2001) -3.2% 1.2% 0.6% (Eurostat, 2002)  

Conclusion: Who leads the World, the U.S. or EU?

Does the U.S. or EU lead in S&T? (More Metrics). *The EU is not far behind either nation. Thus, the results are mixed

For more information: Sleeping Tiger? Japan's Continuing Advances in S&T, R. D. Shelton and G. M. Holdridge, Conference on Japanese Information in Science, Technology, and Commerce, Library of Congress, Washington, July, 1997. http://www.itri.loyola.edu/papers/jistc797/welcome.htm American Leadership of Science and Technology: Reality or Myth?, R. D. Shelton, J. B. Mooney and G. M. Holdridge, Science and Technology Indicators 2000, Leiden. http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/myth.pdf WTEC Website http://www.wtec.org Shelton Website http://itri2.org/s/ Includes this paper in text form and slideshow.

For more info http://itri2.org/ITRInews/