Building capacity to assess the impact of

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Presentation transcript:

Building capacity to assess the impact of climate change/variability and develop adaptation responses for the mixed crop/livestock production systems in the Argentinean , Brazilian and Uruguayan Pampas Principal Scientists Graciela Magrin, INTA, Argentina María I. Travasso, INTA, Argentina Osvaldo Canziani, Argentina Gilberto Cunha, Brazil J. Mauricio Fernandes, Brazil Agustin Gimenez, GRAS- INIA, Uruguay Walter E. Baethgen, IFDC, Uruguay Holger Meinke, APSRU, DPI, Australia

Applied Systems Analysis Building Regional Adaptation Capacity Establishing Applied Systems Analysis Networks for Building Regional Adaptation Capacity (AIACC LA 27)

Agriculture Crops:Wheat Abiotic Factors Biotic Factors

WHEAT DISEASES Leaf rust Spot blotch Glume blotch Powdery mildew Blast Take all Blast Tan spot BYDV

FUSARIUM HEAD BLIGHT OF WHEAT Window of susceptibility Highly influenced by weather variables

Mycotoxins DON – Deoxynivalenol – (0.5 ppm) Wheat zero Barley Maize Flour ? DON, Fuminosin,...

CROP MODELS DSSAT - Decision Suport System for Agrotechnology Transfer Wheat Model (Soil-H20, Soil N, Plant phenology, biomass, weather variables) Heading starts FHB Sub-model

FHB Model FHB SUSCETIBLE HOST = + PATHOGEN + WEATHER (P, T ºC)

WHEAT-FHB MODEL DEMO

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002231 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002232 FHB - SIMULATION

0.30 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002233 FHB - SIMULATION

0.60 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002234 FHB - SIMULATION

0.42 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002235 FHB - SIMULATION

0.26 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002236 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002237 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002238 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002239 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002240 FHB - SIMULATION

0.4 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002241 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

0.39 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002242 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002243 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002244 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

0.04 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002245 Flowers: 114 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002246 Flowers: 156 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 495 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002247 Flowers: 212 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 719 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1078 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002248 Flowers: 134 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 886 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1418 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1595 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

0.4 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002249 Flowers: 225 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 486 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 1.92 Flowers: 1636 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 1.8 Flowers: 1951 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 2.52 Flowers: 1788 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 1.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002250 Flowers: 198 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 713 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 1.92 Flowers: 502 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 1.8 Flowers: 1926 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 2.52 Flowers: 1839 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 1.72 Flowers: 1453 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002251 Flowers: 243Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 889 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 1.92 Flowers: 1497 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 1.8 Flowers: 732 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 2.52 Flowers: 2331 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 1.72 Flowers: 1958 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1294 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002252 Flowers: 172 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 1094 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 1.92 Flowers: 1923 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 1.8 Flowers: 2471 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 2.52 Flowers: 1187 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 1.72 Flowers: 2652 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1885 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1136 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002253 Flowers: 287 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 798 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 1.92 Flowers: 2355 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 1.8 Flowers: 3151 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 2.52 Flowers: 3361 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 1.72 Flowers: 1732 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 2399 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1555 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 843 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002254 Flowers: 287 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 798 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 1.92 Flowers: 2355 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 1.8 Flowers: 3151 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 2.52 Flowers: 3361 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 1.72 Flowers: 1732 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 2399 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1555 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 843 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

0.35 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002255 Flowers: 238 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers:927 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 1.92 Flowers: 1027 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 1.8 Flowers: 2861 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 2.52 Flowers: 3149 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 1.72 Flowers: 2998 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1453 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1879 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1092 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers:536 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

0.3 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002256 Flowers: 176 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers:971 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 3,59 Flowers: 1724 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 4,95 Flowers: 1183 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 5,93 Flowers: 3035 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 6,76 Flowers: 2878 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 5,03 Flowers: 2253 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 4,19 Flowers: 855 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 3,15 Flowers: 1200 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 1,04 Flowers:622 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 0,62 Flowers: 253 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0,31 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

0.14 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002257 Flowers: 32 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers:1119 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 2003 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 7.65 Flowers: 2652 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 10.71 Flowers: 1509 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 11.08 Flowers: 3127 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 9.36 Flowers: 2442 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 7.80 Flowers: 1694 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 5.85 Flowers: 468 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 2.85 Flowers:709 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 1.17 Flowers: 306 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0.58 Flowers: 83 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.09 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002258 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers:647 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 2370 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 3194 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 12.47 Flowers: 3455 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 13.10 Flowers: 1900 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 11.38 Flowers: 2630 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 9.48 Flowers: 1823 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 7.11 Flowers: 1102 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 3.69 Flowers:211 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 1.67 Flowers: 333 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0.71 Flowers: 95 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.13 Flowers: 76 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.02 FHB - SIMULATION

0.4 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002259 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers:303 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 1048 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 2916 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 12.47 Flowers: 3256 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 13.10 Flowers: 3174 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 11.38 Flowers: 1682 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 9.48 Flowers: 2136 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 7.11 Flowers: 1335 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 3.69 Flowers:733 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 1.67 Flowers: 125 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0.71 Flowers: 113 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.13 Flowers: 97 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.02 FHB - SIMULATION

0.60 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002260 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 393 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 1220 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 3108 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 18.86 Flowers: 3001 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 17.13 Flowers: 2416 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 14.28 Flowers: 1043 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 10.70 Flowers: 1384 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 6.09 Flowers:776 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads:3.11 Flowers: 355 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 1.43 Flowers: 43 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.37 Flowers: 112 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.14 FHB - SIMULATION

0.42 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002261 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 19 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 567 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 1593 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 27.50 Flowers: 3258 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 25.78 Flowers: 2610 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 21.48 Flowers: 1880 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 16.11 Flowers: 645 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 9.69 Flowers: 854 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 5.27 Flowers: 401 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 2.51 Flowers: 123 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.73 Flowers: 48 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.50 FHB - SIMULATION

0.45 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002262 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 428 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 3501 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 33.55 Flowers: 1977 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads:31.82 Flowers: 2734 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 26.52 Flowers: 1945 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 19.89 Flowers: 1224 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 12.21 Flowers: 317 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 6.79 Flowers: 407 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 3.28 Flowers: 127 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.98 Flowers: 117 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.76 FHB - SIMULATION

0.36 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002263 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 2950 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 33.55 Flowers: 1368 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads:31.82 Flowers: 1759 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 31.98 Flowers: 2228 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 23.98 Flowers: 1431 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 14.94 Flowers: 820 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 8.42 Flowers: 187 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4,09 Flowers: 141 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.26 Flowers: 135 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.03 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002264 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 2239 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 33.55 Flowers: 567 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads:31.82 Flowers: 1029 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 31.98 Flowers: 938 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 23.98 Flowers: 1420 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads:17.10 Flowers: 811 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 382 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 56 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 130 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002265 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 33.55 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads:31.82 Flowers: 462 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 31.98 Flowers: 448 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 23.98 Flowers: 639 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads:17.10 Flowers: 852 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 403 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 125 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 53 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002266 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 33.55 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads:31.82 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 31.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 23.98 Flowers: 1222 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads:17.10 Flowers: 316 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 408 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 128 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 120 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002267 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 33.55 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads:31.82 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 31.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 23.98 Flowers: 1464 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads:17.10 Flowers: 850 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 209 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 151 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 150 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002268 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 33.55 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads:31.82 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 31.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 23.98 Flowers: 1325 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads:17.10 Flowers: 738 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 406 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 68 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 145 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002269 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 33.55 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads:31.82 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 31.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 23.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads:17.10 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 269 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 100 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 22 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002270 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 33.55 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads:31.82 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 31.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 23.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads:17.10 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 92 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 14 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002271 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 33.55 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads:31.82 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 31.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 23.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads:17.10 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002272 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 33.55 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads:31.82 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 31.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 23.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads:17.10 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

0.45 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002273 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 33.55 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads:31.82 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 31.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 23.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads:17.10 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

0.39 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002274 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 33.55 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads:31.82 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 31.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 23.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads:17.10 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002275 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 33.55 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads:31.82 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 31.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 23.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads:17.10 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

0.19 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002276 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 33.55 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads:31.82 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 31.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 23.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads:17.10 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002277 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 33.55 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads:31.82 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 31.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 23.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads:17.10 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

0.35 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002278 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 33.55 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads:31.82 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 31.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 23.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads:17.10 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002279 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 33.55 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads:31.82 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 31.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 23.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads:17.10 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

FHB - SIMULATION Incidence = 65 % Severe 0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002280 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 33.55 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads:31.82 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 31.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 23.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads:17.10 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 Incidence = 65 % Severe FHB - SIMULATION

FHB - SIMULATION Incidence = 65 % Severe 0.45 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002281 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 33.55 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads:31.82 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 31.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 23.98 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads:17.10 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 Incidence = 65 % Severe FHB - SIMULATION

Wheat crop model Agronomic inputs Weather inputs Early spring wheat Nine sowing dates Three-day intervals Soil properties Weather inputs Historic daily weather Scenario daily weather FHB incidence

FHB INC PASSO FUNDO 1957-1980

FHB INC PASSO FUNDO 1981-2003

FHB INC PASSO FUNDO SCENARIO

FHB INC LA ESTANZUELA 1931-1965

FHB INC LA ESTANZUELA 1966-1999

FHB INC LA ESTANZUELA SCENARIO

FHB INC PERGAMINO 1931-1966

FHB INC PERGAMINO SCENARIO

Final Remmarks Models using climatic variability and trend analysis are tools for defining FHB-risk FHB - Blame it on Minimum Tillage More frequent FHB epidemics Raise food safety concerns There is a need for breeding more resistant wheat Interactions with other crops/pests