2012 Crop Market Outlook Coleman Research Group Presentation July 27, 2012 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1
U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 96.4 Yield (bu./acre) 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 146.0 Production (mil. bu.) 12,092 13,092 12,447 12,358 12,970 Beg. Stocks 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 903 Imports 14 8 28 22 30 Total Supply 13,729 14,774 14,182 13,508 13,903 Feed & Residual 5,182 5,125 4,793 4,550 4,800 Ethanol 3,709 4,591 5,021 5,050 4,900 Food, Seed, & Other 1,316 1,370 1,407 1,405 1,420 Exports 1,849 1,980 1,835 1,600 Total Use 12,056 13,066 13,055 12,605 12,720 Ending Stocks 1,183 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.06 3.55 5.18 6.20 5.90 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted (mil. acres) 75.7 77.5 77.4 75.0 76.1 Yield (bu./acre) 39.7 44.0 43.5 41.5 40.5 Production (mil. bu.) 2,967 3,359 3,329 3,056 3,050 Beg. Stocks 205 138 151 215 170 Imports 13 15 14 Total Supply 3,185 3,512 3,495 3,286 3,235 Crush 1,662 1,752 1,648 1,675 1,610 Seed & Residual 106 110 130 101 124 Exports 1,279 1,499 1,501 1,340 1,370 Total Use 3,047 3,361 3,280 3,116 3,105 Ending Stocks Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.97 9.59 11.30 12.40 14.00 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted (mil. acres) 63.2 59.2 53.6 54.4 56.0 Yield (bu./acre) 44.9 44.5 46.3 43.7 45.6 Production (mil. bu.) 2,499 2,218 2,207 1,999 2,224 Beg. Stocks 306 657 976 862 743 Imports 127 119 97 115 120 Total Supply 2,932 2,993 3,279 2,977 3,087 Food 927 919 926 940 950 Seed 78 69 71 77 73 Feed & Residual 255 150 132 169 200 Exports 1,015 879 1,289 1,048 1,200 Total Use 2,275 2,018 2,417 2,234 2,423 Ending Stocks 664 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.78 4.87 5.70 7.24 6.80 Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4
Prices
Crop Conditions Source: USDA-NASS
Projection from Corn Conditions
Projection from Soy Conditions
Source: NOAA-CPC
Winter Wheat Harvest Source: USDA-NASS
Spring Wheat Harvest & Condition Source: USDA-NASS
World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12
World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13
World Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB 14 14
Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension
Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension
U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 17 17
Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Wheat Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Corn Grind for Ethanol Source: DOE-EIA
Ethanol Stocks Source: DOE-EIA
Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price
Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price
2011 Season-Average Wheat Price
Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price
Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price
Projected ‘12 Season-Average Wheat Price
Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns The drought has had a major impact already. Without timely rains, additional damage will be done. Biofuel growth has stalled with higher feedstock prices and lower energy demand. 2011/12 USDA Futures (7/23/12) 2012/13 Corn $6.20 $6.30 $5.90 $7.28 Soybeans $12.40 $12.52 $14.00 $14.66 Wheat $7.24 $6.80 $7.98
Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/