Apportioning climate change indicators to regional emitters

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Presentation transcript:

Apportioning climate change indicators to regional emitters Jason Lowe September 2002

Estimating regional share EMISSIONS FROM EACH COUNTRY/REGION RADIATIVE FORCING FOR EACH COUNTRY TEMPERATURE CHANGE FOR EACH COUNTRY SHARE CONCENTRATIONS FROM EACH COUNTRY/REGION

Results – Phase 1 Unless otherwise stated, results use EDGAR-HYDE 1.4 gas emissions.

CDIAC – Basic model (no feedback) Temperature CO2 Conc CH4 Conc N2O Conc

CDIAC – Extended model (feedback)

CDIAC – Basic model (no feedback) Short CH4 and N2O lifetimes

EDGAR/HYDE – Basic model

EDGAR/HYDE – Extended model

Can we simulate B1 CO2 concentrations using a simple model Can we simulate B1 CO2 concentrations using a simple model? Input to HadCM3 is used as a comparison HadCM3 CO2 concentrations derived from Bern carbon cycle model. Pre-1990 values agree well with observations

Can we simulate A1FI CO2 concentrations using a simple model Can we simulate A1FI CO2 concentrations using a simple model? Input to HadCM3 is used as a comparison

Can we simulate temperature rise using a simple model Can we simulate temperature rise using a simple model? HadCM3 simulation is used as a comparison

Results – Phase 2 Unless otherwise stated, results use marginal approach.

Regional share of CO2 emissions

Regional share of cumulative CO2 emissions

Regional share of CO2 concentrations

Regional share of GHG forcing

Global temperature rise from regional emissions

Regional share of temperature rise

Share of the temperature rise to 2100

Regional share of temperature rise annex 1 and non-annex 1

Regional share of temperature rise Only using emissions after 1950

Regional share of temperature rise Only emissions after 1990

Are the results different for other scenarios? A1FI B1 A2

Does feedback affect the apportionment calculation? No temperature feedback Temperature feedback

Does the amount of carbon cycle fertilization affect the result? Bern low case Bern high case

Does a slower climate response (only long time constant) affect the result? Slow climate model response

Comparing attribution methods Marginal All minus one