UNYE DOGA SCHOOL presents Landscape of the future: How do you see your neighborhood in the year 2050? GLOBAL WARMING and ITS EFFECTS ON TURKEY (comparison of 1990s and 2050s)

What is Global Warming? The current increase in temperature of the Earth's surface as well as it's atmosphere. The global surface temperature has increased nearly 1℃ since the beginning of the twentieth century.

Causes of Global Warming 1. Natural -Plate tectonics -Changes in the Earth’s orbit -Meteor strikes -Volcanic eruptions -Sunspots 2. Human Enhanced burning fossil fuels (through the use of cars and heating, for instance) changing the landscape (e.g. deforestation)

How does the climate of Turkey change? Changes in the climate may differ from region to region in the world. Regional changes could differ from the global trend as well. If we compare the change in temperature in Turkey with that of the globe, we can see some important differences. We find that:

Mount Erciyes Glacier 2. The spring and fall temperatures increased but not as much as the summer temperatures. 3. Turkey’s mountain glaciers have been retreating at a pace of about 10 meters per year. 4. The snow has begun to melt earlier in recent years, which raises the water level of the snow-fed rivers earlier.

MAPPING THE GLOBAL WARMING IN TURKEY According to Istanbul Technical Univercity research, Temperature: it will increase upto 6 degrees in general in Turkey. Precipitation: it will increase upto 10 or 20% in Blacksea Region and decrease upto 30% in the south of Turkey. Radiation: Solar radiation will increase in all over the country, especially in southern regions.

Temperature In Turkey, the temperatures range from about 18°C in the southern coastal areas to below 4°C in much of the eastern high plateau. 1961-1990 2050s Comparison of future map 2050s with the 1961-1990 map indicates that the temperature will increase all over Turkey !

Precipitation Turkey receives the lowest annual precipitation around Karaman in the south central plateau (below 300 mm) and its highest precipitation around Rize in the northeast (above 2,000 mm). 1961-1990 2050s Comparison of future map 2050s with the 1961-1990 map indicates that precipitation will decrease in the southern parts of Turkey, while it may increase in the northern parts!

EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON TURKEY We will see the effects on: Agriculture Water Energy

Agriculture Agriculture is one of the top sectors in Turkey. The climates of Turkey are suitable to grow a wide variety of crops, vegetables, and fruits. Much of the crops including wheat, barley, and rye are grown in the central plains. Most vegetables and fruits are produced in the coastal cities of Turkey. !!One of the recently emerging agricultural spots in Turkey is the Harran basin in southeastern Anatolia where it has become possible to grow cotton and corn, in addition to wheat, barley, beans, and fruits. This especially takes effect when the Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP in Turkish initials) creates more favorable conditions for agriculture as it brings the water of the Euphrates to the arable lands of the plain. The land sustainability for rain-fed agriculture is not high in Turkey.

The map shows that the hotspot cities for some of the top crops and fruits of Turkey overlap with the areas where the projections show decreases in rainfall. In conclusion, it could be stated that climate change will increasingly threaten the food security of Turkey in the 21st century.

2. Water The useable water in Turkey is about 112 billion m³ per year. Currently, we only use 40% of this amount (i.e., 44 billion m³). Most of this water in Turkey is used for agricultural irrigation (33 billion).

Due to global warming, lakes and rivers are shrinking Due to global warming, lakes and rivers are shrinking. Here some examples: Lake Akşehir, 2011 Lake Akşehir, 1990s

Lake Burdur Salt Lake 1990s 2010 1990s 2006

3. Energy Much of the electricity consumed is generated from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, lignite, and natural gas. The total installed power in Turkey is about 60,000 MW; -35% of this is from hydraulic power, -4% from wind power, -and the rest (61%) from fossil fuel power (coal, natural gas, etc.). The country has relatively high potentials in hydraulic and wind energy and quite high potential in solar energy. According to the General Directorate of Renewable Energy; Turkey’s wind potential will increase due to global warming. There will be slight increase in solar energy Reductions in water potentials will have a negative effect on hydraulic energy.

International Conventions That Turkey Has Signed United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification Convention on the Protection of the Black Sea Against Pollution (Bucharest Convention) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) Convention on Biological Diversity

If we do not act properly: Broiling hot weather and drought will cause a decline in both quantity and quality of agricultural products. Instead of summer tourism, in a few decades, spring tourism will be popular. People in the sought will try to move to the northern regions of Turkey. Forest fires and agricultural diseases will increase. The water streams and thermal regime of our seas will increase and thus, migration route of fish will change.

The earth is not only ours to use. Let’s not be selfish and do our best to save it for future generations!