Algorithm Option A DESC 1/8/2012

Option A Data used: Sample daily consumption Total LDZ consumption taken from Nationalgrid website as DM and NDM Sample AQ by EUC Total AQ – Assumptions made

Total AQ Only data available from Mod 81 reports Assumed that AQ held consistent from 1st October to 30th September Some inaccuracy in AQ assumptions – tried second run using an AQ scaling to assess sensitivity and it does make a significant difference

Results R Squared Split AQ 99.3% Scaled AQ 99.4% MAPE Split AQ 5.3%

Scaling Factor Vs Adjustment Factor

Next Steps Extend to other LDZ and years Firm up on AQ information Assess by site results to Smart data Questions: Would we expect Adjustment factor to be similar to SF? Should we assess sample adequacy?