Estimating as a Way of Improving and Completing Administrative Data Workshop on “THE IMPLEMENTATION OF A MORE EFFICIENT WAY OF COLLECTING DATA” Thorsten Tümmler, Federal Statistical Office of Germany

Outline Average of persons employed Active persons Company turnover for VAT groups 21.10.2008

Average of persons employed Current BR data employees liable for social insurance as of 31st of December Administrative data employees liable for social insurance at the end of each month Linkage BR – administrative data Compute average of persons employed per year 21.10.2008

Active persons Current BR data Administrative data employees liable for social insurance as of 31st of December Administrative data Marginal part-time workers Estimation of number of active persons Number of employees liable for social insurance + number of marginal part-time workers + number of working proprietors Number of working proprietors depending on legal form Corporation  0 Sole proprietor  1 Partnership, others  2 21.10.2008

VAT-groups in the BR (1) Administrative data Problems in the BR Turnover of whole group recorded at controlling company No data for subsidiary companies Problems in the BR Link controlling company – subsidiaries No turnover for subsidiaries Too much turnover for controlling company Consequences Analysis Support for surveys 21.10.2008

VAT-groups in the BR (2) Importance of VAT-groups number employees turnover 3% 32% 43% 21.10.2008

The estimation procedure – step 1 Use of turnover from surveys Assumption: turnover from surveys is best substitute Turnover from surveys for the same, the previous or the following year Turnover from surveys available for 32% of all companies belonging to VAT-groups 64% of all companies with 50 or more employees 21.10.2008

The estimation procedure – step 2 (1) Estimation of unknown turnover Objective: Generation of turnover at market conditions including interior turnover Multiple logarithmic OLS-regression using data of companies not belonging to VAT-groups Number of employees Number of local units of the enterprise Legal form Economic activity Location of the enterprise 21.10.2008

The estimation procedure – step 2 (2) Multiple logarithmic OLS-regression model ln(Y) =  + 1 * ln(X1) + 2 * ln(X2) + 3 * ln(X3) + 4 * X4 + … +  ln(Y) = logarithmised turnover ln(X1) = logarithmised number of employees ln(X2) = logarithmised number of marginal employees ln(X3) = logarithmised number of local units X4, X5, … = dummies Separate regression for (almost) each NACE division 21.10.2008

The estimation procedure – step 3 Adjusting turnover of VAT-group to tax data Proportional capping if estimated turnover of VAT-group … exceeds taxable turnover by times Proportional adding if estimated turnover of VAT-group … falls short of taxable turnover No adjustment for turnover from surveys 21.10.2008

The estimation procedure – step 4 Checking of selected individual results Selection depending on weight for analysis by NACE division and federal state branch of industry and county Checking of about 300 single estimated data Checking in practice difficult since data for comparing not available 21.10.2008

Results (1) Increase of overall turnover by 3% number employees 32% 46% 21.10.2008

Results (2) Redistribution of turnover Manufacturing (D) Trade (G) Business services (K) Others 21.10.2008

Thank you for your attention! Thorsten Tümmler Federal Statistical Office phone: +49 611 / 75-3383 email: thorsten.tuemmler@destatis.de 21.10.2008