Cariboo Regional District Offices Williams Lake, BC Impacts ands Risks to Forest Values in the San Jose Watershed: results from the RAC project Harry Nelson, UBC October 9, 2012 Cariboo Regional District Offices Williams Lake, BC

The San Jose Watershed

Impacts, vulnerability, and risk Impacts are the measurable effects of climate change on people and the environment. They include things like increased peak river flows and higher average annual temperatures. Vulnerability describes how susceptible a system is to the impacts of climate change. Example: if storm is predicted to bring heavy rainfall and a community’s stormwater management system is not designed to accommodate the volume of water, that stormwater management system is vulnerable to the impact of storms. Risk refers to both the likelihood that a particular system will experience an impact of climate change, and how serious the outcome will be. It encompasses both the probability of an impact and the likelihood of an occurrence to evaluate potential consequences.

Mean predicted change in mean seasonal temperature under the High Climate Change Scenario Figure 10, p.28

Mean predicted change in seasonal precipitation under the High Climate Change Scenario Figure 11, p. 28

Projected temperature and precipitation at the Williams Lake Airport in 2080 under the High Climate Change Scenario p.29

BioGeoclimactic Zones in the San Jose Watershed

Douglas Fir Productivity on Different Soil Types in the IDF under High CC Figure 15, p. 32

Lodgepole Pine Productivity in the SubBoreal under High CC Figure 16, p. 32

Overall Effects Translate into Reduced Timber Supply Figure 17, p. 33

And a Significantly Changing Forest Structure Over Time No climate change (base case) High Climate change From Figure 30, p. 38

Forest Values at Risk timber harvesting can be sustained in its current form for many more decades, the risks to future timber supply are also steadily growing by the end of century there are areas within the landbase where the economics of timber operations (based on current values and economic models) would be challenged by low stocking levels and increased regeneration costs.

Forest Values at Risk (2) Our simulation also shows that climate change is likely to lead to a highly changed forest landscape in the future; and in some cases current habitat prescriptions (e.g. mule deer winter habitat) will no longer be appropriate