Factors for Christianity’s Success

My First Thought About The Triumph of Christianity Athens Twenty Years Ago

Factors for Christianity’s Success

Suggestions Occasionally Made Failure of Paganism Appeal of Monotheism Attractions of Ethics Benefits of Community Superior Health Care The Power of God

But Why Christianity? The Key Factors (Distinctions) Evangelism The Incentive The modus operandi (social networks) Exclusivity

How Fast Did Christianity Grow? Some Important Round Figures A Beginning Number: 20 followers of Jesus in 30 CE The typical (scholarly) End Number: 5-6 million in 300 CE Reasons for Suspicion A More Plausible End Number: 2-3 million in 300 CE How Do We Get from Here to There?

Crunching the Numbers Enter the Sociologist: Rodney Stark Problems 4900% (= 1000 converts) in the first decade? But only 40% (= 55 converts) in the first three decades? More Plausible Calculations An Initial burst Tapering off Ebbs and Flows Slower rates near the end The Exponential curve

The Rate of Growth

Crunching the Numbers Enter the Sociologist: Rodney Stark Problems 4900% (= 1000 converts) in the first decade? But only 40% (= 55 converts) in the first three decades? More Plausible Calculations An Initial burst Tapering off Ebbs and Flows Slower rates near the end The Exponential curve What It Would Take (per year)

Measuring the Growth 30 CE – 20 Christians 60 CE – 1280 Christians, so say 1000-1500 100 CE – 8389 Christians, say 7000-10,000 150 CE – 36,000 Christians, say 30,000-40,000 200 CE – 157,000 Christians, say 140,000-160,000) 250 CE – 676,000 Christians, say 600,000-700,000 300 CE – 2,923,000 Christians, say 2,500,000 to 3,500,000 312 CE – 3,857,000Christians, say 3,500,000-4,000,000 400 CE – 29,478,000 Christians, say 25,000,000-35,000,000

Some Implications The Historical and Cultural Impact of Christianity

Measuring the Growth 30 CE – 20 Christians 60 CE – 1280 Christians, so say 1000-1500 100 CE – 8389 Christians, say 7000-10,000 (.0167% -- that is, 1/60 of 1%) 150 CE – 36,000 Christians, say 30,000-40,000 200 CE – 157,000 Christians, say 140,000-160,000 (.267%, that is, somewhat over ¼ of 1%.) 250 CE – 676,000 Christians, say 600,000-700,000 300 CE – 2,923,000 Christians, say 2,500,000 to 3,500,000 (that is, about 5%) 312 CE – 3,857,000Christians, say 3,500,000-4,000,000 400 CE – 29,478,000 Christians, say 25,000,000-35,000,000 (that is, about 50%)

Some Implications The Historical and Cultural Impact of Christianity The Lost Writings of the Christians