Longitudinal Temporal and Probabilistic Prediction of Survival in a Cohort of Patients With Advanced Cancer  Pedro E. Perez-Cruz, MD, MPH, Renata Dos Santos, MD, Thiago Buosi Silva, PhD, Camila Souza Crovador, RN, Maria Salete de Angelis Nascimento, MD, Stacy Hall, RN, MSN, Julieta Fajardo, BSN, Eduardo Bruera, MD, David Hui, MD, MSc  Journal of Pain and Symptom Management  Volume 48, Issue 5, Pages 875-882 (November 2014) DOI: 10.1016/j.jpainsymman.2014.02.007 Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine Terms and Conditions

Fig. 1 Clinician prediction of survival using the a) temporal approach, b) the 24-hour probabilistic approach, and c) the 48-hour probabilistic approach by time to death. Black lines represent the perfect prognosis. Gray dashed lines are the thresholds for accuracy. Dark colored lines are used for physicians and light colored lines are used for nurses. MD = doctor of medicine; RN = registered nurse. Journal of Pain and Symptom Management 2014 48, 875-882DOI: (10.1016/j.jpainsymman.2014.02.007) Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine Terms and Conditions

Fig. 2 Accuracy of a) physicians' and b) nurses' prognostication of survival using the temporal and 24- and 48-hour probabilistic clinician prediction of survival (CPS). Temporal CPS was considered accurate if it fell within ±33% of the actual survival (AS). Probabilistic CPS was considered accurate if the clinician endorsed a survival probability ≤30% and the patient died in the specific time frame (e.g., 24 or 48 hours) or the clinician selected a survival probability ≥70% and the patient survived beyond the specific time frame. a) At all time points, the 24- and 48-hour probabilistic approaches were significantly higher than the temporal approach (McNemar test, P < 0.05). b) At all time points, the 24- and 48-hour probabilistic approaches were significantly higher than the temporal approach (McNemar test, P < 0.001 for each time point). In the comparison between the temporal and the 24-hour probabilistic approaches, the McNemar test could not be used for Days −13 and −10 before death because of restrictions of the test for complete agreement. Journal of Pain and Symptom Management 2014 48, 875-882DOI: (10.1016/j.jpainsymman.2014.02.007) Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine Terms and Conditions