Migration Definitions and Trends Ken Keller DHS - 2004

Definitions Mobility = change in residence (16% of U.S. population changes residence annually) Migration = permanent or semi-permanent change in residence crossing an administrative boundary More restrictive than mobility 6% of U.S. population Addresses issue of permanency and avoids tourists Assumes break in community ties Involves a new activity system with new job, friends, shopping, etc.

Most moves are short distance

U.S. mobility rates are among the highest in the world. World patterns >16% U.S., Canada, Australia, New Zealand 9-15% France, Sweden, Great Britain, Switzerland, Israel, Japan < 9% Austria, Belgium, Ireland The average American makes 10 to 11 lifetime moves, between 2 and 3 across state boundaries.

Why are U.S. mobility and migration rates high? History of immigration. Movement begets more movement. Once the ties to home are broken, they are easier to break again. Emphasis on personal freedom and individualism Open housing markets, easy to buy and sell, easy to develop land, relatively liberal building codes.

Historical Trends – U.S. mobility rates have declined since 1950.

Why have mobility rates declined? More dual career households Higher levels of homeownership Improved intra-urban mobility encourages people to substitute commuting for changes in residence. Impact of increasing congestion? Congestion index increases from 1.12 to 1.30 in Phoenix and Las Vegas between 1982 and 1999. It will take twice as long to travel across town in 2040. Will people choose to move to reduce their commute?

Geographic Trends Mobility rates are highest in West, and lowest in East. U.S. average is 16.1. 12.3 in Northeast 15.0 in Midwest 17.0 in South 18.9 in West

Huge variations in % born in state. 77.7% in Pennsylvania 75.3% in Michigan 74.8% in Iowa 73.4% in Wisconsin 68.1% in S. Dakota 66.1% in Massachusetts 62.9% in Utah 21.3% in Nevada 32.8% in Florida 34.7% in Arizona 41.1% in Colorado

Annual mobility rates in selected metropolitan areas, 1994 and 1995 (percent of household heads who moved in last year)

Consequences Low mobility is associated with stability and strong sense of place. High mobility is associated with weak place ties, weak sense of community, high rates of divorce and suicide, and low levels of charitable giving. High mobility is also linked with innovation and synergy of bringing together diverse people with different points of view, adaptive to change.

Migration is selective with respect to certain characteristics Age: 20-29 year olds have the highest moving rates.

Migration selectivity continued Non-Hispanic whites are less mobile than other racial and ethnic groups --14% for non-Hispanic whites, 20% for Blacks, and 19% for Hispanics Single and divorced people are more likely to move than married people. Renters are more likely to move than owners – 32.5% for renters versus 9.1% for owners The highly educated are more likely to make long-distance moves. Information about other places National and regional labor markets Can afford to move

Migration selectivity continued Someone who has moved in the past is most likely to move again.