Youth mobility in Europe and its social, political and economic macro-drivers. A case study of Germany, Norway, and Luxemburg from 2004-2013 Markus Däubler (University of Luxembourg, Luxembourg) Emilia Kmiotek-Meier (University of Luxembourg, Luxembourg) Karen Hemming (German Youth Institute, Germany) Jan Skrobanek (Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, Norway) EU Geo Congress 2017 „Association of Geographical Societies in Europe “ MOVE has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 649263

Overview Introduction Theoretical background Questions Methods and secondary macro sample Results Conclusions Kmiotek-Meier, Hemming, Skrobanek, Däubler: Youth mobility in Europe and its social, political and economic macro-drivers.

1. Introduction MOVE: Mapping mobility – pathways, institutions and structural effects of youth mobility in Europe Horizon 2020 program (2015-2018) Goal: improvement and reduction of negative impacts of youth mobility in Europe Aim case study: role of macro level characteristics in shaping youth mobility in Germany & Luxemburg (EU), Norway (non-EU) Kmiotek-Meier, Hemming, Skrobanek, Däubler: Youth mobility in Europe and its social, political and economic macro-drivers.

2. Theoretical background Push and pull factors (Lee, 1966 & Massey et al., 1993) “Tadaro Migration Model” (Todaro, 1980) “Welfare magnet” hypothesis (Borjas ,1999) “Global education” hypothesis (Haas, 2011) “Demography differential” hypothesis (Muenz 2013) Linkage to global labour market perspective (Wallerstein, 1974) Kmiotek-Meier, Hemming, Skrobanek, Däubler: Youth mobility in Europe and its social, political and economic macro-drivers.

2. Causes of incoming youth mobility – heuristic model Kmiotek-Meier, Hemming, Skrobanek, Däubler: Youth mobility in Europe and its social, political and economic macro-drivers.

3 Key questions How did youth migration to Germany, Norway, and Lux. develop between 2004 and 2013? How did the macro-predictors develop in the three countries over this period? Which trends can be found with regards to the parallel development of youth migration and macro-predictors? Which are the main sending countries for youth mobility to Germany, Norway, and Lux.? Kmiotek-Meier, Hemming, Skrobanek, Däubler: Youth mobility in Europe and its social, political and economic macro-drivers.

4. Methods and secondary macro sample Descriptive analysis Secondary macro data analysis OECD Eurostat United Nations Development Program World Bank Aggregated macro data of NO, DE, and LU (2004-2013) Data for youth aged 15-29 Youth migration data: German Federal Statistics Office Norwegian Federal Statistics Office National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies of the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg Kmiotek-Meier, Hemming, Skrobanek, Däubler: Youth mobility in Europe and its social, political and economic macro-drivers.

5.1 Mobility indicators for NO, DE, LU: youth migration total numbers and ratio Kmiotek-Meier, Hemming, Skrobanek, Däubler: Youth mobility in Europe and its social, political and economic macro-drivers.

5.2 Economic macro indicators: Labour Market

5.3 National macro indicators: Welfare

5.4 Social macro indicators: Living conditions & demography

5.5 Main countries of origin for migration to Germany

5.5 Main countries of origin for migration to Norway

5.5 Main countries of origin for migration to Luxemburg

6. Conclusions I All countries are attractive receiving countries Youth mobility has risen All show positive development regarding the economic, state, and societal indicators  attractive for young people from other European countries especially from the east BUT: income inequality Kmiotek-Meier, Hemming, Skrobanek, Däubler: Youth mobility in Europe and its social, political and economic macro-drivers.

6. Conclusions II countries strongly vary in respect of sending countries the young people come from meso- and micro-variables have to be taken into account while explaining cross boarder mobility of young people Quality and availability of migration data is important Other partner countries were not able to deliver comparable migration data Kmiotek-Meier, Hemming, Skrobanek, Däubler: Youth mobility in Europe and its social, political and economic macro-drivers.

Thank you for your attention! Markus Däubler (markus.daubler@uni.lu) Emilia Kmiotek-Meier (emilia.kmiotek@uni.lu) Karen Hemming (hemming@dji.de) Jan Skrobanek (skrobanek@hisf.no) MOVE has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 649263 Hemming, Skrobanek, Dettmer, Däubler: Youth mobility in Europe and its social, political and economic macro-drivers.