THE RISE OF THE NEW LEFT: WHY VENEZUELA?

VENEZUELA? REALLY? An apparently stable two-party democracy Rómulo Betancourt and Generation of 1928 Pact of Punto Fijo (1958) No military threat Awash in petroleum (“Venezuela Saudita”) OPEC (1960) PdVSA Positive international profile Socialist International Diplomacy in Central America/1980s

SEEDS OF RESENTMENT Socioeconomic inequality Reliance on state patronage Petroleum as “devil’s excrement” Concentration of power and wealth Rural-to-urban migration Partidocracia: Absence of clear programs Closed-list slates Ageing leadership

POLITICAL DECAY Carlos Andrés Pérez (CAP) Voter disenchantment Neoliberal reforms and caracazo Attempted coups 1992 Impeachment 1993 Voter disenchantment Turnout: 96% (1973) to 60% (1990s) AD + COPEI vote share: 90% (1970s-80s) to 45% (1993) to 11% (1998) Rafael Caldera wins as independent in 1993

THE BOLIVARIAN REVOLUTION Domestic agenda: Strengthening state Redistributing wealth Monopolizing power Global agenda: Opposing U.S. hegemony Building continental solidarity Becoming leader of developing world Consolidating oil-producing alliances

INTERNAL WEAKNESSES Judiciary, rule of law and “due process” Absence of representative institutions—e.g., courts, legislature, unions Concentration of presidential power Chávez’s own charisma Economic inefficiencies NB: defeat in November ’07 referendum, victory the following year

CURRENT ISSUES Leadership: Economic performance: Foreign policy: Tightening circle of advisers Accusations of corruption Economic performance: Rationing of water and electricity Attempted price controls Foreign policy: Threats of war with Colombia Rise of Lula and Brazil Curtailing opposition: Redistricting for elections of National Assembly Shutdown of RCTV International