BUS 411 Lecture 3

Agenda Apply for graduation Assignment 1 Graded Assignment 2 Results varied, Feedback provided Difference between Citation and Reference Assignment 2 Due Feb 7 Assignment 3 posted Covers Chapter 3 & 4 Due Feb 14 Use Class generated SWOT for IFE and EFE Begin lecture on The External Assessment

The External Assessment Chapter Three

External Assessment – Wayne Calloway, Former CEO, PepsiCo “It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.” – Charles Darwin “Nothing focuses the mind better than the constant sight of a competitor who wants to wipe you off the map.” – Wayne Calloway, Former CEO, PepsiCo

Chapter Objectives Describe how to conduct an external strategic-management audit. Discuss 10 major external forces that affect organizations: economic, social, cultural, demographic, environmental, political, governmental, legal, technological, and competitive. Describe key sources of external information, including the Internet. Discuss important forecasting tools used in strategic management. Discuss the importance of monitoring external trends and events. Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Chapter Objectives (cont.) Explain how to develop an EFE Matrix. Explain how to develop a Competitive Profile Matrix. Discuss the importance of gathering competitive intelligence. Describe the trend toward cooperation among competitors. Discuss market commonality and resource similarity in relation to competitive analysis. Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

External Audit External audit focuses on identifying and evaluating trends and events beyond the control of a single firm reveals key opportunities and threats confronting an organization so that managers can formulate strategies to take advantage of the opportunities and avoid or reduce the impact of threats Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

The Nature of an External Audit The external audit is aimed at identifying key variables that offer actionable responses Firms should be able to respond either offensively or defensively to the factors by formulating strategies that take advantage of external opportunities or that minimize the impact of potential threats. Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Key External Forces External forces can be divided into five broad categories: economic forces social, cultural, demographic, and natural environment forces political, governmental, and legal forces technological forces competitive forces Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Relationships Between Key External Forces and an Organization Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

The Process of Performing an External Audit First, gather competitive intelligence and information about economic, social, cultural, demographic, environmental, political, governmental, legal, and technological trends. Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

The Process of Performing an External Audit Information should be assimilated and evaluated A final list of the most important key external factors should be communicated 10-20 External factors balanced between opportunities and threats Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

The Process of Performing an External Audit Key external factors should be: important to achieving long-term and annual objectives measurable applicable to all competing firms, and hierarchical in the sense that some will pertain to the overall company and others will be more narrowly focused on functional or divisional areas Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

The Industrial Organization (I/O) View The Industrial Organization (I/O) approach to competitive advantage advocates that external (industry) factors are more important than internal factors in a firm for achieving competitive advantage. Success is achieved by picking the right industry Grocery Stores (food retail) Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

The Industrial Organization (I/O) View Firm performance is based more on industry properties Economies of scale Barriers to market entry Product differentiation The economy Level of competitiveness Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Economic Forces Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Sources of Economic Data FRED http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/ World Bank http://data.worldbank.org/ Google Public Data Explorer http://www.google.com/publicdata/directory Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.bea.gov/ International Monetary Fund http://www.imf.org/external/data.htm

$ < € ; $ < ¥ Exchange rates https://www.oanda.com/currency/converter/ $ < € ; $ < ¥ Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Advantages and Disadvantages of a Weak Dollar Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Economic Trade Zones http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_bloc

Social, Cultural, Demographic, and Natural Environmental Forces U.S. Facts Aging population Less white (except for Maine) Widening gap between rich & poor 2025 = 18.5% population > 65 years 2075 = no ethnic or racial majority United States Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/# UN Data http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/sources/census/2010_PHC/default.htm Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Social, Cultural, Demographic, and Natural Environmental Forces Facts World population 7 billion World population = 8 billion by 2028 World population = 9 billion by 2054 U.S. population > 310 million Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Key Social, Cultural, Demographic, and Natural Environment Variables Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Political, Governmental, and Legal Forces The increasing global interdependence among economies, markets, governments, and organizations makes it imperative that firms consider the possible impact of political variables on the formulation and implementation of competitive strategies. US State Department http://www.state.gov/ CIA Data https://www.cia.gov/index.html Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Political, Government, and Legal Variables Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

American Labor Unions The extent that a state is unionized can be a significant political factor in strategic planning decisions as related to manufacturing plant location and other operational matters The size of American labor unions has fallen sharply in the last decade due in large part to erosion of the U.S. manufacturing base http://www.bls.gov/news.release/union2.toc.htm http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_trade_unions_in_the_United_States Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Technological Forces The Internet has changed the very nature of opportunities and threats by: altering the life cycles of products, increasing the speed of distribution, creating new products and services, erasing limitations of traditional geographic markets, changing the historical trade-off between production standardization and flexibility. Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Technological Forces The Internet is altering economies of scale, changing entry barriers, and redefining the relationship between industries and various suppliers, creditors, customers, and competitors Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Technological Forces Many firms now have a Chief Information Officer (CIO) and a Chief Technology Officer (CTO) who work together to ensure that information needed to formulate, implement, and evaluate strategies is available where and when it is needed Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Technological Forces Technological advancements can: Create new markets, Result in a proliferation of new and improved products, Change the relative competitive cost positions in an industry, Render existing products and services obsolete. Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Competitive Forces An important part of an external audit is identifying rival firms and determining their strengths, weaknesses, capabilities, opportunities, threats, objectives, and strategies Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Competitive Forces Characteristics of the most competitive companies: Market share matters Understand and remember precisely what business you are in Whether it’s broke or not, fix it–make it better Innovate or evaporate Acquisition is essential to growth People make a difference There is no substitute for quality Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Key Questions About Competitors Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Competitive Intelligence Programs Competitive intelligence (CI) a systematic and ethical process for gathering and analyzing information about the competition’s activities and general business trends to further a business’s own goals Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Competitive Intelligence Programs The three basic objectives of a CI program are: to provide a general understanding of an industry and its competitors to identify areas in which competitors are vulnerable and to assess the impact strategic actions would have on competitors to identify potential moves that a competitor might make that would endanger a firm’s position in the market

Media Monitoring Companies that gather competitive intelligence for a fee http://www.burrellesluce.com/ http://www.fuld.com/ http://www.metromonitor.com/

Market Commonality and Resource Similarity the number and significance of markets that a firm competes in with rivals Example: Automotive Industry, Fast Food Resource similarity the extent to which the type and amount of a firm’s internal resources are comparable to a rival Example: Logistics (UPS and Fedex) Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

The Five-Forces Model of Competition Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

The Five-Forces Model of Competition Identify key aspects or elements of each competitive force that impact the firm. Evaluate how strong and important each element is for the firm. Decide whether the collective strength of the elements is worth the firm entering or staying in the industry. Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

The Five-Forces Model Rivalry among competing firms Most powerful of the five forces Focus on competitive advantage of strategies over other firms Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

The Five-Forces Model Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

The Five-Forces Model Potential Entry of New Competitors Barriers to entry are important Quality, pricing, and marketing can overcome barriers Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Barriers to Entry Need to gain economies of scale quickly Need to gain technology and specialized know-how Lack of experience Strong customer loyalty Strong brand preferences Large capital requirements Lack of adequate distribution channels Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Barriers to Entry Government regulatory policies Tariffs Lack of access to raw materials Possession of patents Undesirable locations Counterattack by entrenched firms Potential saturation of the market Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

The Five-Forces Model Potential development of substitute products Pressure increases when: Prices of substitutes decrease Consumers’ switching costs decrease Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

The Five-Forces Model Bargaining Power of Suppliers is increased when there are: Large numbers of suppliers Few substitutes Costs of switching raw materials is high Backward integration is gaining control or ownership of suppliers Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

The Five-Forces Model Bargaining power of consumers Customers being concentrated or buying in volume affects intensity of competition Consumer power is higher where products are standard or undifferentiated Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Conditions Where Consumers Gain Bargaining Power If buyers can inexpensively switch If buyers are particularly important If sellers are struggling in the face of falling consumer demand If buyers are informed about sellers’ products, prices, and costs If buyers have discretion in whether and when they purchase the product Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Sources of External Information Unpublished sources include customer surveys, market research, speeches at professional and shareholders’ meetings, television programs, interviews, and conversations with stakeholders. Published sources of strategic information include periodicals, journals, reports, government documents, abstracts, books, directories, newspapers, and manuals. Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Sources of External Information: Web Sites http://www.marketwatch.com/ http://moneycentral.msn.com http://finance.yahoo.com http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ https://us.etrade.com/e/t/invest/markets www.hoovers.com UMFK Databases https://globaledge.msu.edu/global-insights/by/industry These are clickable links in slideshow mode.

Forecasting Tools and Techniques Forecasts educated assumptions about future trends and events quantitative, qualitative techniques Forecasting is complex because of factors such as technological innovation, cultural changes, new products, improved services, stronger competitors, shifts in government priorities, changing social values, unstable economic conditions, and unforeseen events Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Making Assumptions Assumptions Document your assumptions Best present estimates of the impact of major external factors, over which the manager has little if any control, but which may exert a significant impact on performance or the ability to achieve desired results. Document your assumptions Will be tested by time and actual outcomes Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Industry Analysis: The External Factor Evaluation (EFE) Matrix Economic Social Cultural Demographic Environmental Political Governmental Technological Competitive Legal Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

5 Steps (Page 77-78) List key external factors 10-20 (balanced 5&5  10&10) Opportunities then threats Assign weights from 0.0 to 1.0 based on importance Sum of all weights across all factors = 1 Assign a rating from 1 to 4 for all factors where 4 = the firm’s response is superior 3 = the firm’s response is above avg 2 = the firm’s response is average 1 = the firm’s response is poor Multiply the rating by the weight Sum the weighted scores

EFE Matrix for a Local Ten-Theater Cinema Complex Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Industry Analysis EFE Total weighted score of 4.0 Organization response is outstanding to threats and weaknesses Total weighted score of 1.0 Firm’s strategies not capitalizing on opportunities or avoiding threats Average is 2.5

Industry Analysis: Competitive Profile Matrix (CPM) Identifies firm’s major competitors and their strengths & weaknesses in relation to a sample firm’s strategic positions Critical success factors include internal and external issues Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Steps to a CPM Identify Critical Success Factors (CSF) Broad issues Internal and external (5 of each is a good mix) Assign a weight to each CSF Must add up to 1 Assign a rating for your firm and each of your competitors 4 = major strength 3 = minor strength 2 = minor weakness 1 = major weakness Multiply weight by rating Sum the weighted ratings and compare

An Example Competitive Profile Matrix Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall