Rethinking U.S. Foreign Policy: Bush vs. Obama “Cowboy Diplomacy”or the only alternative in a dangerous world?

What Causes Foreign Policy? The anarchy of the international system – Realism Economic interests of states – Marxism/Mercantilism Form of government of states – Institutionalism/Neo liberal theory Liberal internationalism/complex interdependence – Neo Liberal theory “Cognitive Map of leaders – Great Man Theory Shared Ideals/Values of states – Constructivism Compromise among competing agencies – Bureaucratic Politics

Foreign Policy and Presidential Approval http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/presidential-approval-center.aspx

Disapproval of US Foreign Policy In 2005 68% of global citizens thought US presence in the Middle East provoked more conflict than it prevented Only 34% of Americans approved of the situation in Iraq, compared with only 20% globally

Unilateralism v. Multilateralism Isolationism before 9/11 ICC Kyoto Protocol Land Mines Treaty Invasion of Iraq Sanctions on Sudan Afghanistan North Korean Nuclear Weapons Iran’s nuclear program

Preventive War The case against Saddam Hussein Preventive war v. preemptive strikes Just war doctrine Deterrence against non-state actors Nuclear weapons and rogue states

Exporting Democracy Can be imported, but not exported Exported at the point of a gun? Germany and Japan Grenada and Panama Democracy v. development Democracy v. civil society US Democracy

Is It The Best American Product? Exporting Democracy Is It The Best American Product?

Three Waves of Democracy Samuel Huntington identified three waves in the spread of democracy in the World. Early 19th century extension of the franchise thru the new democracies of the 20th century – 29 Democracies. Reversal to 22 began with rise of Mussolini

Three Waves of Democracy 2. After the allied victory in World War II. The number of democracies rose to 36 free nations. By the mid-70s there was a reversal back to 30. 3. The Third Wave began in the 80s with 30 new democracies, 15 new free states in the 90s and 10 new democracies in the 00s. (85 total) Are we going to begin a reversal or it is the “End of History?”

The Third Wave of Democracy

The Third Wave of Democracy

The End of the Third Wave Democracy Faltering in Latin America Democracy’s Demise in Putin’s Russia The failure of democracy to take hold in the new states of the former Soviet Union Retrenchment in Sub-Saharan Africa

Democratic Peace Theory

Idealism v. Realism American Ideals v. American Interests Woodrow Wilson and a U.S. foreign policy based upon moral imperatives Fourteen Points League of Nations FDR’s support for self determination Jimmy Carter’s human rights foreign policy The overthrow of the Shah of Iran The defeat of the Somoza Regime in Nicaragua Carter’s inconsistencies

Idealism v. Realism Truman’s Containment Eisenhower’s support for Latin American dictators & failure to support Hungarian dissidents Reagan’s support for the Nicaraguan “Contras” Bush 41 discourages democracy in the new states of the former USSR

President Bush’s Plan to Export Democracy American Exceptionalism and the UniPolar moment The power of Western liberal democracy and capitalism The lack of freedom and opportunity in the Middle East is the cause of 9/11 (Majority of hijackers were Saudis)

The Bush Plan: The Good News Elections in Iraq Elections in Afghanistan The “Orange Revolution” in the Ukraine Success in Lebanon Reform In Egypt Revolution in Kyrgzstan Funding for democracy

The Critics

The Critics Democracy can’t be spread at the point of a gun. Economic development, stability, the rule of law and growth of civil society must precede democracy We are not safer. The Bush policy brings more recruits to Jihad and increases the threat of Terrorism Where is the support for democracy in China, Saudi Arabia or Pakistan? The bad role model: Abu Ghraib, military tribunals and Guantanamo Iraq & Afghanistan are unlikely to become real democracies

Is Democracy Appropriate? Cultural Imperialism The U.S. Constitution in the Philippines Women’s Rights Elections do not a democracy make. Does the “bottom up” approach really seem to work best?

Origins of Obama’s Foreign Policy Advisors vs. Cabinet Appointments The War in Vietnam & the Democratic Party Joe Biden The War in Iraq

Obama’s Foreign Policy Report Card Image in the Muslim World Wars in Iraq & Afghanistan GWOT - UBL Middle East Peace Arab Spring WMD in Iran Russia “Reset” Asia “Pivot”