A Quarterly Economic Update With Dr

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Presentation transcript:

A Quarterly Economic Update With Dr A Quarterly Economic Update With Dr. Bruce Yandle Thursday, March 21, 2019

The Economic Situation Taking a Look at the 2019 Economy Bruce Yandle March 21, 2019

From Sleep Walking to a Just Right Goldilocks Economy From Sleep Walking to a Just Right Goldilocks Economy. Or is it Hesitating? From 1.6% GDP Growth to 2.3% to 3.1%

No!!!!!! Let me out of here! From Levitating to Hesitating

October 27, 2018. Real GDP Growth: 1Q2013 – 4Q2018 2019 Est. 2.3%-3.2% ?? 2Q 4.2% 4Q 2.6% 3Q 3.4% 2018: 3.1%

Employment: Year-over-Year Growth, February 2, 2019. Employment: Year-over-Year Growth, 1/2014 – 1/2019 Sleep Walking Waking

Commercial & Industrial Loans Year-over-Year Growth, 1/2014 – 12/2018 February 2, 2019. Commercial & Industrial Loans Year-over-Year Growth, 1/2014 – 12/2018 Sleep Walking Waking

Investment and Labor Productivity: 2014 - 2018 March 11, 2019. Investment and Labor Productivity: 2014 - 2018

Labor Force and Productivity Growth: 2014 - 2018 March 12, 2019. Labor Force and Productivity Growth: 2014 - 2018

Combined Productivity and Labor Force Growth: March 15, 2019. Combined Productivity and Labor Force Growth: Year-over-Year 1980 - 2018

Fed Policy Trade Wars Deficits & Debt

2017 Export-Supported Jobs

TRADE OCCURS BETWEEN PEOPLE, NOT NATION/STATES. WHY THE HUGE TRADE DEFICIT? WE CONSUME MORE THAN WE PRODUCE. SOME PEOPLE, SOMEWHERE MUST PRODUCE MORE THAN THEY CONSUME. FOREIGN DIRECT CAPITAL INVESTMENT—THE NEW VOLVO PLANT—DOES NOT SHOW UP IN THE BALANCE OF TRADE. THE FUNDS TO INVEST COME FROM GOODS SOLD TO THE UNITED STATES.

Uncertainty causes HESITATION

EVIDENCE? Cash instead of stocks Temps vs. permanent hires Bonuses instead of wage increases Revised investment plans Surcharges instead of price increases

THE FEDERAL DEBT IS

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the “Big Five” spending categories for 2018 Federal government outlays were: Social Security benefits, $1,042 billion; Healthcare, $1,107 billion; Defense, $892 billion, and interest on the public debt, $324 billion. All the rest of government sums to $391 billion. Suppose the average interest rate paid by the U.S. Treasury for all debt outstanding rises from the September 2018 level of 2.86 percent to the September 2008 level of 4.652 percent. If so, debt interest costs would rise from $324 billion to $521 billion, leaving about $191 billion for all the rest and lots of related budget cuts.

2019 RECESSION????

Let’s go where we can find work! Pa– Where should we head?? Let’s go where we can find work!

Employment Growth: Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging 2007-2016 California Colorado D.C. Florida Georgia Massachusetts North Carolina South Carolina Utah Washington

Population Growth: 2008 - 2017

It’s time to look in the crystal ball!

Here’s the picture I see for the U.S. for 2019: GDP growth will hit between 2.3% and 2.8%. Inflation will rise a bit. Look for 2.5%. Interest rates will nudge up. 10-yr. bond: 3.10%. Mortgage rate: 4.80%. Manufacturing continues apace. Housing weakens; autos down.

Bridging the gap between academic ideas and real-world problems