Cross Holdings: The Black Hole of valuation

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Presentation transcript:

Cross Holdings: The Black Hole of valuation Aswath Damodaran

Problem 1 Juno Enterprises is a publicly traded company that owns 60% of Vellum Inc., another publicly traded company. They are both stable growth companies, growing 2% a year in perpetuity, with a cost of capital of 10%. The table below lists key numbers for Juno (consolidated) and Vellum: Assuming that Juno has 100 million shares outstanding, estimate the value per share for Juno.

Problem 1: Solution (1) Approach 2: Value June consolidated and subtract out 40% of equity value in Vellum (minority interests) Juno (consolidated) Vellum Operating income (after-tax) $110 $20 Book Equity $1,000 $100 Debt $225 $50 Cash $25 Invested Capital $1,125 $125 Return on capital 9.78% 16.00% Expected growth rate 2.00% Reinvestment Rate 20.45% 12.50% Cost of capital 10.00% Value of business 1093.75 218.75 + Cash - Debt Value of equity $969 $194 Value of equity in Juno = 969 - 0.4 (194) = $891.25 Value of equity per share = $8.91

Problem 1: Solution (2) Approach 1: Value June parent and add 60% of value of Vellum Juno (consolidated) Vellum Juno (Parent) Operating income (after-tax) $110 $20 $90 Book Equity $1,000 $100 $900 Debt $225 $50 $175 Cash $25 $75 Invested Capital $125 Return on capital 16.00% 9.00% Expected growth rate 2.00% Reinvestment Rate 12.50% 22.22% Cost of capital 10.00% Value of business 218.75 875 + Cash - Debt Value of equity $194 $775 Value of equity in Juno = 775 + 0.6 (194) = $891.25 Value of equity per share = $8.91

Problem 2 Gerlach Chemicals is a chemical company that owns 70% of Adler Steel, a publicly traded steel company. Using the consolidated financial statements for Gerlach Chemicals, you have estimated a present value of the free cash flows to the firm of $ 1500 million; the firm reported $ 200 million in cash, $ 300 million in debt and $ 150 million as a minority interest on its (consolidated) balance sheet. Assuming that steel companies trade at 1.6 times book value, estimate the value of equity in Gerlach Chemicals.

Problem 2: Solution Value of operating assets = $1,500 + Cash $200 - Debt $300 - MV of minority interests $240 Value of Equity = $1,160

Problem 3 You are reviewing the valuation of Simca Inc., a beverage company with a 75% cross holding in a LightEat Inc, a restaurant chain. Using Simca’s parent company financials (not consolidated) and LightEat’s financials, you have obtained the following: Estimate the value per share in Simca.   Simca (Parent) LightEat DCF value of the operating assets $1,500.00 $600.00 Debt $500.00 $300.00 Cash $200.00 $100.00 Number of shares 100.00 50.00

Problem 3: Solution Simca (Parent) LightEat   Simca (Parent) LightEat Value of the operating assets $1,500.00 $600.00 Debt $500.00 $300.00 Cash $200.00 $100.00 Number of shares 100.00 50.00 Value of equity (independent) $1,200.00 $400.00 Value of equity with cross holdings Value of equity per share = $15.00

Problem 4 You have been asked to assess the value/share in Veritas Inc., a company with a 10% holding in Haversack Inc. (recorded as a minority holding) and with a 75% holding in Samson Inc. (consolidated in Veritas financials). You have completed intrinsic valuations of all three companies and the results are summarized below, with the cash and debt at each of the companies (in millions of US$): If there are 100 million shares outstanding in each of the three companies, estimate the value per share in Veritas Inc. Veritas (Consolidated) Haversack Samson Value of operating assets (PV of FCFF at WACC) $1800 $900 $800 Cash $200 $100 Debt $500 $300

Problem 4: Solution Veritas Haversack Samson Value of operating assets $ 1,800.00 $ 900.00 $ 800.00 + Cash $ 200.00 $ 100.00 - Debt $ 500.00 $ 300.00 Value of equity $ 1,500.00 $ 600.00 Value of equity in Veritas + 10% of Haversack Equity $ 80.00 - 25% of Samson Equity $ 150.00 $ 1,430.00 # Shares 100 Value per share $ 14.30