October 18-20, 2010 LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA

October 18-20, 2010 Airport Capacity Session Kent Duffy LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA Airport Capacity Session Kent Duffy Senior Airport Planner Federal Aviation Administration kent.duffy@faa.gov

Agenda FAA Airport Capacity Guidance Airport Capacity and Delay AC Replacement NextGen and Airport Capacity Planning 3 3

FAA Airport Capacity Guidance Methods, approach, data sources, and coordination for capacity analysis will vary substantially with airport complexity and project scope Multiple FAA sources for capacity guidance: AC 150/5070-6B Airport Master Plans AC 150/5060-5 Airport Capacity and Delay FAA Airport Benefit Cost Analysis Guidance FAA JO 7110.65T Air Traffic Control AC 150/5300 Airport Design Goal is to develop a capacity analysis that is reasonable, defensible, and adequate to inform project decisions 4 4

Plan for the Capacity Analysis supporting multiple needs Master Plan Capacity Analysis Method/ Approach Baseline Capacity NEPA Noise/Emissions Document Alternatives Screening and Selection ADPM vs AAD BCA Delay Savings

Choose an appropriate Method/Approach Example Model Types Rules of Thumb/Handbook Capacity and Delay AC Analytical/Spreadsheets Airport Capacity Model Airport Delay Model Queuing Models DELAYS Step-Event Models TAAM, SIMMOD ADSIM, RDSIM Human-in-the-Loop Tower Simulators Less More Data, level of detail, complexity, time/cost --Less can be more --More can be more --Spreadsheet and analytical models can be really effective to narrow alternatives --Step-Event Models often needed for BCA Reach consensus with Sponsor, FAA, operators, and other stakeholders in advance on approach

Data Sources Operational Data Surveillance data: FAA ASR, PDARS, airport systems (e.g., ANOMS) Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) @ aspm.faa.gov Air Carrier movements: Gate Out, Wheels Off, Wheels On, Gate In (OOOI) ETMS, ASQP, and other sources ATC and Operators Coordination with the ATCT and/or TRACON is vital, early and throughout the project Airline Chief Pilots can be excellent resources Airline Gate Schedules Other National Climatic Data Center – hourly weather observations Bureau of Transportation Statistics – Airline Performance/Delays/Costs ASPM has ETMS, ASQP, ATADS, OPSNET, Comprehensive, detailed data sources exist to support capacity analysis

Metrics and Limitations Range of potential metrics: Annual Capacity/Annual Service Volume (ASV) Hourly Capacity/Throughput 15-minute demand/capacity throughput can be helpful in examining impact of schedule peaks Pareto curves can be useful in showing capacity ranges during Arrival Push, Departure Push, and Mixed Operations Average Delay and 90th or 95th Percentile Delay Recognize Limitations, particularly for runway-centric models Ability of the airspace to move aircraft to/from the runway Taxi movements, runway crossings, and gates can be significant constraints Weather: VFR/MVFR/IFR and Minimum Vectoring Altitude Typical Metrics

Key Points In an era of airline schedule uncertainty, evaluate demand levels not specific years Recognize effect of airline schedule peaks on results ASV is a screening tool not project justification Identifying airports as ‘congested’ or having ‘unacceptable delay’ is a moving target Recognize limitations of data and models in interpreting results Be wary of inadequate analysis – there is never time to do it right, but there is always time to do it over Adequate coordination with ATC and operators can substantially improve confidence in the analysis 9 9

Capacity and Delay AC Replacement AC 150/5060-5 Tech Center Draft AC + Rules of Thumb Legacy 150/5060-5 ~1983 Data Sources Policy and Technical Guidance ACRP 3-17 Capacity Airside/Airspace Capacity and Delay Factors ACRP 3-20 Delay NPIAS Order Update New AC -6 ~2012? NextGen Performance Factors 10 10

NextGen: Evolution of ATC Procedural Based Control Where we think the aircraft is Surveillance Based Control Where we know the aircraft is Past Today Trajectory Based Control Where we know the aircraft will be NextGen Landmark Navigation Radio Beacons Position Reports VOR/DME RADAR Performance Based Navigation Precise Aircraft Position 4DT Trajectory Based Operations 11

Mid-Term NextGen Surveillance and Navigation Improvements Service Today’s (Legacy) ATC NextGen – Incremental Roll-Out Airborne Surveillance Radar ADS-B Out ADS-B In Precise aircraft position w/ADS-B out Traffic and Flight Information Broadcasts w/ADS-B In Navigation VOR, DME Area Navigation (RNAV) Required Navigation Performance (RNP) RNAV everywhere and RNP where beneficial Instrument Approach Access ILS, VOR WAAS/LPV (near Cat I) GBAS (potential Cat II/III) 500 LPVs per year to all qualifying runways GBAS can support 26 IAPs from single installation Surface Surveillance Eyeball Legacy ASDE ASDE-X with Data Distribution Units Multi-Lateration ADS-B Surface Traffic Management Surface Collaborative Decision Making **need to animate** Provide better title Distinguish between RNAV and RNP RNAV is everywhere, upwards of 90-95% of the airline fleet currently equipped RNP provides access to airports with serious terrain, as well as the potential to optimize congested terminal airspace to deconflict multiple airports NextGen systems provide various benefits to airports of different sizes and missions 12

Today’s Runway Capacity Delays Optimum Capacity (VFR) Arrival + Departure Hourly Capacity Recovery Reduced Capacity (IFR) Time

NextGen Runway Capacity Reduced Separation? Maintain Capacity during Inclement Weather More precise merging and spacing Equivalent Visual Operations Optimum Capacity (VFR) Arrival + Departure Hourly Capacity Reduced Capacity (IFR) Again…nextgen is about knowing where the aircraft is Time 14

Backup

General use at Airports NextGen is a system of systems that will provide benefits to different sizes of Airports General use at Airports Mid-Term NextGen Benefits Non-Hub Small Hub Medium & Large Hubs Improved access with WAAS/LPV approaches More precise surveillance with ADS-B Improved safety and situational awareness with moving maps, TIS-B, FIS-B, and reduced runway incursions Deconflict airspace in complex multi-airport regions with RNAV and RNP Maintain visual capacity during inclement weather with Equivalent Visual Operations More efficient surface movements with surveillance and Surface Trajectory Management Enhanced flexibility in future airport development plans with revised planning standards for Closely Spaced Parallel Operations (CSPO) and NAVAIDs critical areas Reduced environmental impact with Optimized Profile Descents and RNAV/RNP routes that are noise-sensitive Access & Surveillance Safety Capacity & Efficiency Capabilities – equiv visual ops, deconflict airspace, etc. Design Flexibility Environment 16

NextGen and Airport Capacity Planning NextGen improvements to precisely separate aircraft and redesign airspace should help airports to better maintain optimum (visual) runway throughput during most inclement weather Several approaches to Closely Spaced Parallel Runway Operations (CSPO) that are enabled by ADS-B, RNAV/RNP, PRM-A, and new automation Increased use of dependent, staggered approaches can improve efficiency for runways spaced less than 2,500 feet apart using FAA Order 7110.308 criteria Revised blunder assumptions may lead to reductions in the runway separation needed for independent arrivals to as low as 3,000 feet with RNAV/RNP/LPV/GLS or ILS PRM-A may allow for independent arrivals to runways spaced as low as 2,500 feet In the long-term, ongoing research on paired or tandem approaches is aimed at further reducing runway spacing for simultaneous arrivals NAVAID critical areas on the airport surface may be substantially reduced if ground-based NAVAIDS are decommissioned in favor of LPV and GLS approaches Single Runway Parallel Runways 308: SEA and DEN in 2010 Converging and intersecting runways Ground NAVAIDs As NextGen evolves, airport planning standards will be revised so that airports can integrate these factors into their long-term planning 17