Ethiopian Regional Conference on Capacity Development for Integrating Disaster Risk Management into Urban Settings in Africa October 11, 2012, Addis Ababa Nathalie Jean-Baptiste, UFZ, Leipzig, Germany Fatemeh Jalayer AMRA, Naples, Italy CLUVA Climate Change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa

A Linear modular approach to vulnerability assessment A modular approach to vulnerability and risk assessment Emission Hazard Assessment Climate Change Exposure Risk Climate change scenarios Down-scaling climate change scenarios Hazard assessment Incorporating exposure Risk assessment Risk-based strategic climate change urban adaptation

Very High-Resolution Climate Change Data Slide 3 Increase in temperatures Increases in rainfall

Flood Hazard Assessment Slide 4 Understand the hazards and how climate change will effect them

Assessing Vulnerability of Informal Settlements Slide 5 Analyze local vulnerability based on flood hazard assessments L B

Development of strategies to enhance resilience of urban areas towards climate change Slide 6 Understand the governance situation, develop mitigation strategies

An approach that considers vulnerability as a multifaceted entity Vulnerability rather the starting-point for developing adaptation strategies (O ʼ Brien et al. 2007) o Emerges from development studies and hazard and disaster o A product of different realities and causes external to natural hazards o Examines current vulnerabilities and not prospective impacts Integrated vulnerability assessment approach Contextual vulnerability Space of Vulnerability (Watts & Bohle 1993) Pressure-and-Release Model (Blaikie et al. 1994)

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Seite 11 Help Identify the vulnerable systems and population segments most affected Vulnerability assessment Frameworks and Models Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) (Chambers,1983 ) Development focused Family of approaches and methods that enable locals (rural or urban) to express, enhance, share and analyse their knowledge of life and conditions Natural hazards Participatory Action Research (PAR) ( Chambers and Conway,1992) Community-Based Participatory Research (CBPR) (Hatch et al.,1993) Involves the community in research process Combines knowledge with action Seeks social change Health Participatory Climate Change adaptation appraisal (PCCAA) (Moser, 2009) Mechanism through which the perception of severe weather impact on household and community asset is highlighted Indentify current policies and institutions that help or constraints adaptive capacity Climate Change

Seite 12 Stakeholders mapping and identifying the role of actors in adaptive strategies

Seite 13 Multidisciplinary & Interdisciplinary vulnerability knowledge production The CLUVA project is an integrated effort between seven European institutions and six African research establishments. CLUVA develops context-centered methods to assess vulnerability and to increase knowledge on managing climate related risks such as floods, droughts and sea level rise. Climate Change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa

CLUVA Partners Slide 14 European partners: AMRA, Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risks, Italy - Project coordinator KU, University of Copenhagen, Danish Centre for Forest Landscape and Planning, Denmark UM, University of Manchester, School of Environment and Development, UK TUM, Technical University of Munich, Germany CMCC, Euromediterranean Center of Climate Changes, Italy UFZ, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Germany NIBR, Norwegian Institute of Urban and Regional Research, Norway African partners: UGB, Université Gaston Berger, Sénégal UY1-ENSP, Ecole nationale Supérieure Polytechnique Université Yaoundé 1, Cameroun UO, University of Ougadougou, Burkina Faso ARU, Ardhi University Tanzania, Tanzania EIABC AAU, Ethiopian Institute of Architecture, Building Construction and City Development, Ethiopia CSIR, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, South Africa

Cluva Case-Study Cities

CLUVA Objectives Develop methods and knowledge to be applied to African cities to Slide 16 manage risks related to climate change reduce vulnerabilities improve cities coping capacity and resilience towards climate changes

An Outlook to CLUVA An Outlook to CLUVA Slide 17 Climate change and natural hazard models Developing different climate change scenarios Downscaling climate change scenarios Flood hazard scenarios Desertification scenarios. Vulnerability and risk assessment Indentification of urban hotspots Vulnerability assessment for informal settlements Maps of urban morphology types Future urban scenarios Identify the multi-dimensional conditions surrounding vulnerable groups A multi-risk framework Improving the resilience of the urban systems towards climate change Understanding the governance structure Developing land-use indicators Development of innovative land use and governance strategies to enhance resilience of urban areas towards climate change

Slide 18 Thank you!