From which parties will the parties win votes in 2015?

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Presentation transcript:

From which parties will the parties win votes in 2015? Geoffrey Evans and Jon Mellon Nuffield College University of Oxford In terms of the seats analysis, I think I've got a slightly better way to do it than in the previous email (which comes out with slightly different figures). The assumptions are: Only English and Welsh respondents Individual level comparison of respondents in Labour held seats and Conservative held seats Excluding don't knows but including "I would not vote" Weighted using full weights UKIP support in Conservative held seats: 18% UKIP support in Labour held seats: 14% Further assumptions: using recalled profile data for 2010 and 2005 vote These seem to match up reasonably well with the panel data, but obviously a potential limitation 2010 vote of UKIP supporters in Labour seats: 39% Conservative/18% Labour 2005 vote of UKIP supporters in Labour seats: 31% Conservative/30% Labour www.britishelectionstudy.com

Pathways to UKIP www.britishelectionstudy.com

Conservative paths to UKIP www.britishelectionstudy.com

Labour paths to UKIP www.britishelectionstudy.com

% of overall UKIP support occurring after 2010 www.britishelectionstudy.com

Class and EU effects on Labour defection to UKIP www.britishelectionstudy.com

Anger about immigration among Labour 2005 supporters www.britishelectionstudy.com