Workforce & Economic Outlook

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Presentation transcript:

Workforce & Economic Outlook Dennis K. Winters Chief Economist Department of Workforce Development 4th Annual Partner Ideas Exchange Forum January 29, 2019 Madison, WI

Total Non-farm Jobs Source: LMI, OEA

Economic Outlook Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, LMI, OEA

Economic Outlook Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, LMI, OEA

Lamenting Economic Theory “… every time the economy strengthens, ‘they want to raise [interest] rates again.’” -- The Finance 202; July 25, 2018

Projected Population Change 2015 - 2035 Source: WI Dept. of Administration Demographic Services Center and U.W.-Madison Applied Population Lab

Projected Population Change 2015 – 2025 People Aged 65 & Older

Wisconsin’s Workforce Growth The New Economy WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCE GROWTH BECOMES FLAT Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA

How Employment is Tracking

GDP Inflation Interest Rates Recession

Economic Growth

Slower Consumption GDP Less stimulus Tax cuts run course Trade Housing Autos

Mortgage Rates

Some cost push Trade Inflation Wages Commodity prices Global v. Domestic capacity Tarriffs

Inflation

How well managed Cost of capital Interest Rates GDP Inflation Trade, currencies Cost of capital Non-residential investment Housing

Effective Federal Funds Rate Interest Rates Effective Federal Funds Rate Source: fred.stlouisfed.org

Uncertainty Self-fulfilling Recession Trade/Investment Profits/Stocks Consumption Self-fulfilling Less Consumption/More Savings Panic

Household Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income

Current expansion; July 2009 - ?; 116 months (February) There have been 11 business cycles since 1945 There have been 33 business cycles since 1854 Average post-war recession lasted 11.1 months Great Recession lasted 18 months Great Depression lasted 43 months Recession of 1873 lasted 65 months

Questions? Dennis.Winters@dwd.Wisconsin.gov - Questions?

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