GAINESVILLE HALL COUNTY Comprehensive Plan Update Land Demand & Development Capacity May 28, 2003

Tonight we will Discuss: Where we are in the Planning Process Why we do a Demand and Capacity Analysis The method and results of the Demand Analysis The method and results of the Capacity Analysis Comparison of the Demand to Capacity What this means for the City/County

Where are we in this process? Land Demand Analysis Land Capacity Analysis Vision and Policy Development Plan Development Implementation Strategy Project Initiation Inventories Public Outreach

Why do a Demand & Capacity Analysis Identify potential future growth pressures Identify the current capacity of the City/County to deal with potential growth To create a baseline for what if scenarios To establish a foundation for the discussion of policy questions How should we prepare for the future?

Caution: These analyses and forecasts represent what could happen if current trends continue and current policies are implemented. They do not reflect a value judgment as to whether they are desirable or not.

What Have We Heard? Five Consensus Planning Themes: Quality Growth Efficient Growth Fiscally Sound Growth Urban and Rural Growth Coordinated Growth

Five Attributes of Growth Location of Growth Amount of Growth Rate and Timing of Growth Fiscal Impact of Growth Quality and Environmental Impact of Growth

The Demand Analysis Bill Ross

Demand Analysis Methodology 1. Population and employment forecasts 2. Translate population into dwelling units in different categories 3. Translate employment into land use categories 4. Translate employment into square footage and acreage

Forecasts Past trends – we looked back: Thirty years ( ) Recent past (the 1990s) Natural growth process affected by: Market response to land availability Infrastructure constraints Redevelopment, communication diversity Technological innovation

Forecasts Assumptions Past trends represent a valid anticipation of future change in Hall County and its cities. Those past trends will continue with few changes in the market forces that created them. Factors that would otherwise limit growth naturally will not begin to affect growth until the latter portion of the 2030 forecast horizon.

Forecasts Hall County Population 162,372489,366 Employment 95,605280,792

Forecasts Gainesville Population 29,66287,309 Employment 51,92492,088

Comparison to Other Counties

Residential Demand

Nonresidential Demand

Questions about Demand?

The Capacity Analysis Greg Dale

Capacity Analysis Methodology 1. Identify available land (Gross Land) 2. Identify constraints to land (Net Land) 3. Identify Potential Development Areas (PDAs) 4. Assign Development Density 5. Calculate Residential Unit and Nonresidential Building Area Capacity

How much land is available? Assumptions Vacant Parcels in City Most land zoned for agriculture in the County Conservation land, in floodplains or stream buffers is not available Certain small fragments of land are not included Only includes land in Gainesville and unincorporated Hall County

Net Land Assumptions The way steep slope reduces the capacity of land varies 15 % of Gross Land is needed for infrastructure

Residential Capacity Assumptions Calculated for areas currently designated for residential development Guided by existing Comprehensive Plan, adopted land use density and Zoning Regulations Different between City and County High and low scenario 108,109 Net Acres for Residential

Net Residential Acreage Hall County –104,760 acres Gainesville- 3,079 acres

Residential Capacity Density Assumptions

Residential Unit Capacity (Adjusted) 72, ,707 Total Units

Nonresidential Capacity Assumptions Density based on established floor area ratios Capacity calculated for Office Commercial/Retail Industrial 13,322 net acres of nonresidential land

Net Nonresidential Acreage Commercial/Retail-918 acres Office- 3,281 acres Industrial-9,122 acres

Nonresidential Density Assumptions

Nonresidential Building Area Capacity (Adjusted) million SF total nonresidential

Capacity Questions ?

Residential Demand vs. Capacity

Single Family New Units

Nonresidential Demand vs. Capacity

Implications of Demand and Capacity There is potential market pressure to build out most of Hall County under the current planning policies within the planning horizon This means that we need to be thinking about the end state for the City and County In some ways, this makes the planning simpler – we are not planning for a portion of the county, only to be revisited again and again

Implications of Demand and Capacity We should assume that the future pattern of land uses, intensities, densities, and character proposed in this plan is the final pattern We can identify this final pattern relative to the final level of infrastructure needed to support it Once we establish the final state, then we address how to get there in the most orderly and efficient way, which includes rate of growth issues, the relationship of land use to infrastructure, the allocation of costs of the infrastructure

Next Month: Examine the demand and capacity further Where do we have capacity? Is it in the right places, both from a market perspective, and from a land use perspective? How does the capacity of different types of residential land use compare to demand?

Next Month: Is the end state suggested by current policies what the community wants to be in years? What are the policy implications for the Comprehensive Plan?

Questions and Comments