Do we have a Decadal Prediction Vision?

Decadal prediction interests WGSIP seasonal to decadal prediction WGCM climate change CMIP MIPS and WIP Panels CLIVAR decadal variability and predictability focus Grand Challenge “concept” group develop concept then …. CLIVAR CMIP CLIVAR WGCM Grand Challenge WGSIP Grand Challenge

A curious coincidence DCVP “Working Group” 50% of membership in common DVCP co-chairs on DCPP Panel DCPP co-chairs not on DVCP Panel

DCPP Panel has representatives from: WGSIP seasonal to decadal prediction WGCM including members of CMIP and WIP Panels CMIP including WIP Panels CLIVAR decadal variability and predictability focus has apparently become the decadal climate variability and predictability (DCVP) focus (Working Group?) 50% of members from DCPP including co-chairs Grand Challenge “concept” group WGSIP WGCM CLIVAR CMIP Grand Challange DCPP Panel

Can we unify several the interests in decadal prediction? WGSIP WGCM CLIVAR CMIP Grand Challange

Where does a decadal prediction fit? WGSIP WGCM WGSIP WGDP? Decadal prediction: - annual, multi-annual, up to a decade - initialized forecasts of both forced and internally generated components of variability

Whither decadal prediction? Many groups/organization have interests in decadal prediction Panels, WGs, foci, concept groups ….. Need consolidation - not divergence Should carefully consider a WGDP