Forecast system development activities

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Presentation transcript:

Forecast system development activities

Focus Improvement of the IRI Net Assessment Large-scale, global information Seasonal averages of temperature and precipitation

Net Assessment: precipitation

Net Assessment: temperature

Current activities Pattern-based correction of model output. Correct systematic errors. Calibration based on historical forecasts. Observed SST vs. forecast SST. Information beyond terciles Climatology and forecast probability density functions. New methods for weighting models.

NDJ temperature variability patterns (EOFs) Model Obs. MOS 1 2

correlation Model MOS

Beyond terciles Near-Normal Below Normal Above Normal Historical distribution (climatological distribution) (33.3%, 33.3%, 33.3%) FREQUENCY Forecast distribution (15%, 32%, 53%) The uncertainty can be expressed (quantitatively) in a number of ways: 1) Probabilities of discrete events Confidence level is varied. Interval length is fixed. 2) Error bars / confidence intervals Confidence level is fixed. Interval length is varied. 3) Probability distribution on a continuous scale Breakpoints of categories are determined by historical observations. The probabilities of this distribution are the climatological probabilities. Forecast distribution (say of the ensemble members at a point, or over a region) represent a shift in the range of possibilities. Now categorical probabilities are not equal – they differ from climatology. NORMALIZED RAINFALL Tercile probabilities provide a limited description of the forecast distribution Users may require other properties of the forecast distribution.

DJF(Nov) t2m -- counting

Example 1991

DJF(Nov) t2m -- Bayesian

DJF(Nov) t2m – pattern “CPT”

DJF(Nov) t2m – pattern “honest”

Example 1991

DJF(Nov) t2m – pattern “new”

Example 1991

Flexible format map room

Flexible format map room

Parametric pdfs Gaussian for seasonal temperature Power transformed Gaussian (Box-Cox) for seasonal precipitation

No skew

Some skew

More skew

Future work Add precipitation forecasts to flexible map room. Improved multi-model weights NOAA funded proposal with COLA/GMU and CPC.