Fraser River Crossing Pre- and Post- Study 16th TRB National Transportation Applications Conference May, 2017

BACKGROUND Context Study Objectives There is strong demand for travel across the Fraser River. This travel demand is served by a network of bridges, roads, transit The Port Mann Bridge (PMB) project increased both the bridge capacity and the price of crossing it Pre- and post- studies are complex undertakings and no standard methodology exists Study Objectives Identify effect of new Port Mann Bridge on travel behaviour Be a pilot for pre- and post- studies

METHODOLOGY Household recall survey Asked individuals from the study area about trips made by all members of their household across the Fraser River Issued in two waves (~5,500 households each) Pre-project survey (Fall 2012) No additional capacity, no tolling Post-project survey (Fall 2014) Additional capacity, tolling at full rate Vehicle counts on all the bridges 70-75% of the trips were conducted during the week, the rest in the weekend

Crossings in study area Alex Fraser Pattullo SkyBridge Port Mann Golden Ears All modes Transit only No toll Transit fare Tolled

TIMELINE 2012 2013 2014 Pre-Survey Post-Survey Survey done with 6 lanes, counts based on 8 lanes Pre-Survey Post-Survey Sept 18 3 EB lanes open on new PMB Dec 1 8 lanes of PMB open at $1.50 Express bus service begins Mar 1 Non-registered drivers pay $3 toll Jun 1 - 20 Free trip promotion ends Dec 20 SFPR opens Dec 1 All 10 lanes open Dec 25 Full toll takes effect

ANALYTICAL CHALLENGES Insufficient traffic counts for validation Difficult to differentiate real change from random day-to-day fluctuations Random or systemic sample issues (retired vs. employed) Concurrent changes in external factors such as Population and employment Economy (GDP, exchange rate, unemployment, etc.) Fuel prices and transit fares Transportation infrastructure (Highway 17) Changes to transit service (555)

MAJOR FINDINGS Tolling of the Port Mann changed travel behaviour: Primary change Trip diversion - more trips on neighbouring bridges than before Peaking - more rush hour trips on Port Mann than before Secondary change Trip suppression – fewer crossings than expected, given population growth Mode – new Port Mann transit service is popular, but unlikely that many passengers shifted from driving over Port Mann Origin-Destination Unclear Trip distances – no clear pattern No change Departure times

UNRESOLVED QUESTIONS Future demand for travel on Port Mann Bridge Will people get used to the toll rates over time? Or will land use and travel patterns change to avoid the tolls? The effects of tolling of additional bridges/mobility pricing Long-term tolling policy and its implications Future of pre- and post- studies

Thank you! ilan.elgar@translink.ca