PREVIEW in some words (PREVention, Information and Early Warning) A project funded by the European Commission 23 millions € of eligible costs, 14 millions € granted New information services to help risk management Gathering users needs Using the most advanced research and technology Validation on operational platforms 58 partners from 15 nations Scientists Operators Industrial companies End Users 45 months performance schedule (start on 1 April 2005) and yearly budget reviews COSMO partners involved: DWD, ARPA-SIM, ARPA Piedmont, Meteoswiss A.Montani; Eurorisk-Preview COSMO meeting, Zurich, 20-23 September 2005

Windstorms Workpackage (ARPA-SIM activity) Provision of probabilistic forecasts and warnings of strong wind events at all time ranges up to 10 days ahead. Ensemble Forecast inputs: Medium-Range (3-10 days) ECMWF ARPA-SIM (COSMO-LEPS) (Days 3-5) Short-Range (1-2 days) – multi-model ensemble consisting of contributions from: Meteo-France - PEACE DWD - SRNWP-PEPS Met.no - TEPS/LAM EPS Met Office - LAMEPS/EPS Post-processing… A.Montani; Eurorisk-Preview COSMO meeting, Zurich, 20-23 September 2005

Clone of COSMO-LEPS suite over NW Europe Generation of a new limited-area ensemble forecast system for the prediction of wind and wind gusts over North-Western Europe. Aim: provision of site-specific wind forecasts (wind speed, wind direction + other variables to diagnose wind gust) to be post-processed and combined with other products by UK Met. Office. Point forecasts are calculated over 197 stations. Similar configuration as the operational COSMO-LEPS (red), but both clustering and integration domain are shifted northwards (blue). Experimental suite started on September 2006. Computer time provided by an ECMWF special project between ARPA-SIM and UK Met Office. A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS system: recent developments and plans 2nd Workshop on Short-Range EPS, Bologna, 7-8 April 2005

Medium-range plain flood Workpackage (ARPA-SIM activity) Provision of probabilistic forecasts so as to generate ensemble flood forecasts to be compared with the deterministic approach for ranges between 3 and 10 days. The upper-Danube river basin has been selected as pilot river basin and the test period will include the large floods of August 2002. EPS + COSMO-LEPS (10 members) reruns performed for the period 20 July – 31 August 2002. A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS system: recent developments and plans 2nd Workshop on Short-Range EPS, Bologna, 7-8 April 2005