Crop Market Outlook Pro Ag

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Presentation transcript:

Crop Market Outlook Pro Ag Cedar Falls, Mason City, Carroll, and Fort Dodge, Iowa Nov. 12-13, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Area Planted (mil. acres) 88.2 91.9 97.3 95.4 90.9 Yield (bu./acre) 152.8 147.2 123.1 158.8 173.4 Production (mil. bu.) 12,447 12,360 10,755 13,925 14,407 Beg. Stocks 1,708 1,128 989 821 1,236 Imports 28 29 160 36 25 Total Supply 14,182 13,517 11,904 14,782 15,668 Feed & Residual 4,795 4,557 4,315 5,132 5,375 Ethanol 5,019 5,000 4,641 5,134 5,125 Food, Seed, & Other 1,407 1,428 1,397 1,363 1,385 Exports 1,834 1,543 730 1,917 1,750 Total Use 13,055 12,528 11,083 13,546 13,660 Ending Stocks 2,008 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 5.18 6.22 6.89 4.46 3.50 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.4 75.0 77.2 76.8 84.2 Yield (bu./acre) 43.5 41.9 40.0 44.0 47.5 Production (mil. bu.) 3,329 3,094 3,042 3,358 3,958 Beg. Stocks 151 215 169 141 92 Imports 14 16 41 72 15 Total Supply 3,495 3,325 3,252 3,570 4,065 Crush 1,648 1,703 1,689 1,734 1,780 Seed & Residual 130 88 105 98 115 Exports 1,501 1,365 1,317 1,647 1,720 Total Use 3,280 3,155 3,111 3,478 3,615 Ending Stocks 450 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 11.30 12.50 14.40 13.00 10.00 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

Projected Corn Yields Top: 2014 Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bu/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Corn Objective Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS

Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2014 Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bu/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Soybean Objective Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS

Corn Stocks Source: USDA-NASS

Soybean Stocks Source: USDA-NASS

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 14 14

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Current Corn Futures 3.96 3.59 Source: CME Group, 11/10/2014

Current Soybean Futures 9.97 9.78 Source: CME Group, 11/10/2014

Corn Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

Soybean Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

2014/15 Crop Margins

2015/16 Crop Margins

Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns Projected record corn and soybean crops Markets had adjusted downward to absorb projected supplies Recent rebound in prices tied to demand growth Projected negative margins for 2014 and 2015 crops 2013/14 USDA 2014/15 Futures (11/10/14) 2015/16 Corn $4.46 $3.50 $3.59 $3.96 Soybeans $13.00 $10.00 $9.97 $9.78

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/