Rights and Responsibilities of Citizenship Module 7.3: Voter Turnout

Voter Turnout: The Challenge of Legitimacy Why do people vote? Benefit of citizenship Civic duty Family tradition Salience of issues Stake in outcome Media exposure Why don’t people vote? Apathy Disaffection Rational Ignorance Inconvenience Ineligibility

The 50% Voter Turnout Hypothesis About 50% of total population eligible to vote 50% of eligible voters actually register 50% of registered turnout in Leap Year November elections 50% of Leap Year voters turnout in Even Year elections 50% of Even Year voters turnout in Odd Year November elections 50% of Odd Year voters turnout in May elections in any year

The 50% Voter Turnout Hypothesis 300,000,000 in US; 150,000,000 eligible to vote 75,000,000 register 37,500,000 vote in Leap Year November 18,750,000 vote in Even Year November 9,375,000 vote in Odd Year November 4,687,500 vote in May elections in any year

What would this mean locally? Dallas County Population: 2,368,139 (2010 Census); 1,184,069 eligible to vote (50% of total) 592,035 register (50% of eligible) 296,017 vote in Leap Year November elections (25% of eligible) 148,009 vote in Even Year November elections (12.5% of eligible) 74,004 vote in Odd Year November elections (6.25% of eligible) 37,002 vote in May elections in any year (3.125% of eligible)

Testing The 50% Hypothesis Dallas County eligible voters: 1,184,069 Registered Voters: 592,035 Ballots cast November 2011: 74,004 Ballots cast May of any year: 37,002 Actual Data (Source: dalcoelections.org) Dallas County Population: 2,368,139 Registered Voters:  1,100,479 Ballots Cast November 2011:  38,526 Voter Turnout:  3.50 % Actual data consistent with May turnout prediction

Dallas County Turnout, 2000-2011 2008 General 2004 General 2000 General 2002 General 2010 General 2006 General (Source: dalcoelections.org) Results of 50% hypothesis test for Dallas County: Accurately predicts turnout peaks at November of even years Consistently overestimates turnout in November odd-year elections Underestimates Dallas County turnout in most elections Generally does not hold for odd-year elections Generally does not hold for summer elections