NS4540 Winter Term 2017 Gangs of El Salvador Oxford Analytica, Central America: Trump may trigger trade opportunities, January 5, 2017

Overview For a long time conventional view of El Salvadoran gangs was that they followed the 3G2 gang model Violent networks in a context of A state constrained by minimal capacity Poor economic performance and Significant social, political and economic disparities 3G2 model argues gangs grow increasingly sophisticated with time and success – Darwinian mechanism Stage one – local community protection supported by petty crime Stage two – criminal businesses, de-facto control of geographic areas Stage three – international connections and penetration of governments

MS-13 Finances I Recent NYT article “Killers on a Shoestring: Inside the Gangs of El Salvador” cast doubt on this model In the current situation Estimated 60,000 members in country of 6.5 million Maintain menacing presence in 247 of countries 262 municipalities Extort about 70% of businesses Dislodge entire communities from homes and help propel thousands of Salvadorans to undertake dangerous journey to the US Their violence costs El Salvador $4 billion a year Yet closer look does not place them in same category of billion dollar Mexican, Japanese, and Russian syndicates

MS-13 Finances II Recent wiretaps revealed MS-13 collected $600,852 in a typical week With 40,000 members each gang member earns about $65 a month – half minimum wage of an agricultural worker However gangs have expenses Lawyers and funeral services Weapons and munitions and Support for those serving long prison terms and their families Leaves very little for typical member Still they hold considerable power over businesses and can be a significant detriment to investment