Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist Crop Market Outlook Crop Advantage Waterloo, Iowa Jan. 21, 2016 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 Δ Area Planted (mil. acres) 97.3 95.4 90.6 88.0 -0.4 Yield (bu./acre) 123.1 158.1 171.0 168.4 -0.9 Production (mil. bu.) 10,755 13,829 14,216 13,601 -53 Beg. Stocks 989 821 1,232 1,731 Imports 160 36 32 40 10 Total Supply 11,904 14,686 15,479 15,372 -43 Feed & Residual 4,315 5,040 5,315 5,300 Ethanol 4,641 5,124 5,209 5,200 Food, Seed, & Other 1,397 1,369 1,359 1,370 -10 Exports 730 1,920 1,864 1,700 -50 Total Use 11,083 13,454 13,748 13,570 -60 Ending Stocks 1,802 17 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.89 4.46 3.70 3.60 -0.05 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 Δ Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.2 76.8 83.3 82.7 -0.5 Yield (bu./acre) 40.0 44.0 47.5 48.0 -0.3 Production (mil. bu.) 3,042 3,358 3,927 3,930 -51 Beg. Stocks 169 141 92 191 Imports 41 72 33 30 Total Supply 3,252 3,570 4,052 4,151 Crush 1,689 1,734 1,873 1,890 Seed & Residual 105 107 145 131 -2 Exports 1,317 1,638 1,843 1,690 -25 Total Use 3,111 3,478 3,861 3,711 -27 Ending Stocks 440 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 14.40 13.00 10.10 8.80 -0.10 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

Corn Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Soybean Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Current Corn Futures 3.81 3.68 3.56 Source: CME Group, 1/19/2016

Current Soybean Futures 8.66 8.44 8.47 Source: CME Group, 1/19/2016

2015/16 Crop Margins

2016/17 Crop Margins

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/