NS4960 Spring Term 2018 China: Growth Scenarios Oxford Analytica China Coal Trends Signal Deep Economic Shifts, April 2016
EM Recovery
China: Scenarios I Baseline Case 60% Upside Case 15% Leaders prefer growth and stability to reform risking further reliance on debt and leveraging Reforms only post 2018 at best Capital outflows moderate Slow rebalancing away from investment as domestic consumption is strong. Upside Case 15% Bank of China pressured by senior leaders to adopt generalized easing, cutting rates Fiscal expansion means deleveraging further delayed. Banks and SOEs bailed out and forced to operate more commercially
China: Scenarios II Downside Case 25% Government fails to stimulate/implement reforms Sharp slowdown and possible crisis Growth slumps, credit boom turns to bust Non-performing loans up to 6-7% of banking assets Massive outflows, reserve losses, devaluation
China: Longer-Term
China: Policy Constraints Why can’t China just spend its way out of the slowdown? Optimists point to China’s history of responding to economic challenges – 2008 lending surge, earlier bailout of banking system and a restructuring of state-owned enterprises Problem China’s debt burden is now much larger Spending now less effective – Private companies have been pulling back on investment Overall productivity of state spending is low Also fear of creating more bubbles in asset markets
China’s Risky Portfolio FT Big Read: China, October 14, 2016