Air Resource Specialists, Inc. July 23, 2004 AoH Work Plan Air Resource Specialists, Inc. July 23, 2004

AoH Project Goals Integrate and synthesize available 2002 monitoring, modeling, and emissions data to identify: Geographic source areas of emissions that contribute to impairment at federal and tribal Class I areas Mass and species distributions of emissions by source category within each geographic source area The amount of natural and anthropogenic emissions affecting, and the associated visibility impact at, each Class I area Final report to be completed in early 2005 as first step in processes toward 2007 deadline for SIPs and TIPs

AoH Project Communications

Data Review (1) COHA preliminary conceptual models for all Class I areas COHA back trajectory analysis (other source attribution results in time?) COHA episodic analyses Review results for previously identified sub-regions to determine if representative sites can be chosen ARS review of optical data (depends on scope, time and money)

WRAP Class I Areas and Sub-Regions

Data Review (2) Determination of Regional Modeling Center (RMC) model performance, by RMC and ARS, as necessary – in depth model reconciliation with monitoring data not possible given time and monetary constraints Preliminary source attribution for all federal and tribal Class I areas and sub-regions determined by RMC model runs RMC model results for natural emissions

Data Review (3) Review of emissions inventories prepared for WRAP: Point and area sources (Pechan & Associates) Mobile sources and road dust (Environ) Fire sources (Air Sciences) Biogenics and wind blown dust (RMC) Assessment of completeness of inventories Review of literature and RPO reports related to these topics

Additional Project Tasks (1) Assessment and full documentation of methodologies, including calculated or estimated biases and uncertainties Preparation of clear statements regarding what can and cannot be inferred from analysis results Preparation of policy level summaries for each Class I area

Additional Project Tasks (2) Support, facilitate, and summarize AoH Workgroup and contractors’ input from meetings/conference calls Provide an AoH project web site for dissemination of information, results, and reports Compile topic reports from independent experts as necessary (will need to be assessed quickly to meet AoH schedule) Prepare draft and final report

Final Report Essentially a large executive summary which highlights the methods, results, and recommendations of the AoH analysis Project web page will contain the details supporting the hard copy report, and links to original source material Specific details to be approved by AoH Workgroup

Proposed Schedule (subject to change!) Date Description Aug. 2004 Begin review of available data. Initiate project web site. Sep. 2004 Disseminate sample report products to AoH Workgroup. Recommend additional information as required. Oct. 2004 Prepare and submit report outline. Nov. 2004 Submit draft AoH report. Dec. 2004 Collect comments on draft report. Jan. 2005 Prepare final AoH report.

Questions Scientific or regulatory analysis? Schedule for completion of preliminary COHA tribal lands conceptual models? RMC modeling runs may not be final by report deadline… best methods for comparing preliminary results with monitoring data? Schedule for RMC to deliver results for natural emissions? Is January 2005 a critical deadline? – Can final report be pushed out further?