CAMx-PSAT Source Apportionment Modeling Results

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Presentation transcript:

CAMx-PSAT Source Apportionment Modeling Results Stationary Sources Joint Forum Salt Lake City, UT August 17, 2006

Source Apportionment Technique CAMx air quality model with PM Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) PSAT being completed for 2 cases: Plan 2002c Base 2018b Tracks sources of sulfate and nitrate Tracking organic carbon too computationally intensive. However, data is available that delineates primary OC, from biogenic SOA, and anthropogenic SOA.

18 Source Regions on a 36 km Grid

Eight Source Categories ICON Initial conditions BCON Boundary conditions PT Point sources MV Mobile sources ANF WRAP anthropogenic fires Natural WRAP natural fires and biogenics NWF Elevated fires in other RPOs AR All other sources (non-elevated fires in other RPOs, area sources, offshore, oil & gas area sources, etc.) Examples of PSAT “sources”: MV_CO = mobile sources in Colorado PT_CE = point sorces in CENRAP BCON = transport from modeling domain boundaries (derived from GEOS-CHEM)

Status of Modeling Plan 2002c just completed Base 2018b to be completed by end of August Several months currently completed Results currently available for daily and monthly averages Results will be provided for 20% best and worst visibility days at each Class I area

Alternative Formats for Presenting Results All examples are for July SO4 All examples pair 2002 and 2018 on same chart Format 1: Top 10 sources (TONT, GRCA, ROMO, BADL) Format 2: By source region (BADL) Format 3: By source category (BADL) Format 4: By source “controlability” (BADL)

Current Format

Alternate Format 1 – Top 10 Sources

Alternate Format 1 – Top 10 Sources

Alternate Format 1 – Top 10 Sources

Alternate Format 1 – Top 10 Sources

Alternate Format 2 – By Region

Alternate Format 3 – By Category

Alternate Format 4 – By “Controlability”

Slight Decrease in WRAP SO2

Slight Decrease Due To Large Mobile Source Reduction + Modest Point/Area Source Increase

Why Do Area Sources Increase?

Why Do Point Sources Increase?

For further background information and data on PSAT: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml#CAMxBase18b