The Futility of Surveillance for Old and Small Aneurysms

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The Futility of Surveillance for Old and Small Aneurysms Mark Rockley, MD, Dominic Leblanc, MD, Prasad Jetty, MD  Journal of Vascular Surgery  Volume 68, Issue 3, (September 2018) DOI: 10.1016/j.jvs.2018.06.154 Copyright © 2018 Terms and Conditions

Fig 1 Kaplan-Meier curves and hazard ratios (HRs) demonstrating freedom from reaching (A) sex-specific threshold-sized aneurysm and (B) aortic event (AE; threshold-sized aneurysm, elective abdominal aortic aneurysm [AAA] repair, or ruptured AAA repair). The overall HR of the young cohort (<80 years old), compared with the octogenarian cohort, of reaching a threshold-sized aneurysm or aortic event is 1.98 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.46-2.68) and 1.93 (95% CI, 1.54-2.41), respectively. The HRs stratified for each enrollment AAA size are also presented (threshold-sized AAA: HR = 2.75 [95% CI, 0.61-12.27] if enrollment AAA was 3-3.9 cm and HR = 1.94 [95% CI, 1.42-2.65] if enrollment AAA was 4-4.9 cm; aortic event: HR = 3.11 [95% CI, 1.21-7.94] if enrollment AAA was 3-3.9 cm and HR = 1.86 [95% CI, 1.48-2.34] if enrollment AAA was 4-4.9 cm). Cox proportional hazards modeling adjusted for sex because female sex was significantly associated with an increased hazard of reaching threshold-sized aneurysm (HR, 2.91; 95% CI, 2.17-3.89) and aortic event (HR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.59- 2.49). Journal of Vascular Surgery 2018 68, DOI: (10.1016/j.jvs.2018.06.154) Copyright © 2018 Terms and Conditions

Fig 2 Incidence of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair and resulting cost-effectiveness analysis. Groups are stratified by enrollment age and size of AAA at time of enrollment. A, When a threshold-sized AAA was reached, octogenarians were less likely to undergo elective AAA repair than their younger counterparts (overall relative risk, 0.52; 95% confidence interval, 0.45-0.59). B, Repair of ruptured AAA for patients in the surveillance program was rare, and differences were not statistically significant. C, Cost-effectiveness analysis incorporates a base cost of $89.20 for each surveillance ultrasound (Ontario Health Insurance Plan: code H 2, $57.00 technical cost; code P J202, $32.20 professional cost). D, Whereas the cost of surveillance to identify threshold-sized AAA was comparable between age cohorts, there was substantially more discrepancy in the cost of surveillance to prompt elective AAA repair. Journal of Vascular Surgery 2018 68, DOI: (10.1016/j.jvs.2018.06.154) Copyright © 2018 Terms and Conditions