Dynamics and Risks of KenGen Portfolio Revenue Budgeting JOH-KGN001-20071212-JvW-X1 Dynamics and Risks of KenGen Portfolio Revenue Budgeting Freda Nyambura Engineer II – Technical Affairs 2018 G2G INNOVATION SEMINAR, PRIDEINN PARADISE 18TH JUNE - 22ND JUNE 2018

FREDA NYAMBURA Engineer II – Technical Affairs Qualifications: JOH-KGN001-20071212-JvW-X1 FREDA NYAMBURA Engineer II – Technical Affairs Qualifications: Currently pursuing a Masters in Public Policy Analysis BSc. Energy Engineering Responsibilities: Her main focus is development, implementation and monitoring for the PPAs across the company. Key milestones/achievements include: Conducted the PPA tests for the 280 MW project Part of the project team for the billing efficiency initiative between KenGen and KPLC A member of the Association of Energy Engineers.

Introduction

Vehicle Power Plant Capacity Cc MW Charge Mileage payment Energy payment Availability Percentage of the time that I can comfortably have my car ready to be driven after taking out maintenance time. Percentage of the time that the plant can comfortably be ready to generate after taking out maintenance time. Load factor The ratio of the actual mileage to the possible mileage in a given time period. The ratio of the actual energy generated to the possible actual generation in a certain time period

The focus of this presentation is the load factor The focus of this presentation is the load factor. The load factor is one of the negotiated items during the PPAs negotiations. The load factor affects the energy revenue.

Kipevu III PPA load factor Budget load factor Actual load factor 2013-14 30.00 66.54 52.04 2014-15 32.30 29.68 2015-16 13.30 17.96 2016-17 20.00 50.84

The value of the gain in load factor in the FY 2016-17 was Kshs The value of the gain in load factor in the FY 2016-17 was Kshs. 173 Million.

Olkaria IV   PPA load factor Budget Load factor Actual load factor 2014-15 85.00 88.41 86.77 2015-16 85.26 79.33 2016-17 90.00 69.50

The value of the lost load factor for the FY 2016-17 is Kshs. 189 The value of the lost load factor for the FY 2016-17 is Kshs. 189.52 Million

Sagana   PPA load factor Budget Load factor Actual load factor 2013-14 70.00 83.47 68.88 2014-15 62.22 57.45 2015-16 59.49 57.85 2016-17 59.37 31.82

The value of the lost load factor for thr FY is Kshs. 39.04 Million

Gitaru   PPA load factor Budget Load factor Actual load factor 2013-14 54.00 44.70 43.86 2014-15 54.73 37.52 2015-16 39.36 45.56 2016-17 38.31 40.97

The value of the lost load factor in the FY 2016-17 is Kshs. 7 The value of the lost load factor in the FY 2016-17 is Kshs. 7.65 Million.

Major Hydro   PPA load factor Budget Load factor Actual load factor 2013-14 54.00 50.14 56.32 2014-15 46.62 46.59 2015-16 47.17 53.28 2016-17 45.33 47.81

The value of the load load factor in the FY 2016-17 is Kshs. 12 The value of the load load factor in the FY 2016-17 is Kshs. 12.88 Million

Way forward and Conclusion The annual budgeting load factor is a moving number while the PPA load factor is a locked number for the lifetime of the plant. Moving forward, my suggestion is that we have the PPA load factor as the in-house KPI load factor and the annual load factor as the load factor for that will factor in any maintenance we may have in the given year.