Landscape management for resilient value chains SAMIS – FAO / DALAM MAF

The SAMIS project objectives Resilient Landscapes “Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security” The SAMIS project objectives Enable government to make decisions based on the future of climate change in Lao PDR Create scenarios for crop distribution in the future www.fao.org/in-action/samis/

Resilient Landscapes “Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security” Objectives Discuss the consequences of climate change and the impacts on production? Create a landscape thinking process around one or more potential futures

Value chain and climate risk 4

Value chain and climate risk Risks posed by climate change can affect business by Affecting core operations, Affecting the value chain, Setting up broader changes in the economy and infrastructure Source: C2ES, 2008; CC impacts in USA, 2014 5

Value chain and climate risk But… Focusing on the single value chain reduces intervention trade-off and might disregard territorial socio-economic and environmental characteristics Source: Vermeulen, 2016 6

Climate smart landscapes for value chain resilience 7

Value chain and the territory i.e. Production of tables and chairs Territorially embedded value chain collaborations Value chain thinking Source: Ros Tonen, 2015 8

…or landscape’ multiple value chains i.e. Production of tables and chairs Value chain are part of landscapes Value chain thinking Landscape thinking Source: van Oosten, 2015 9

Landscape thinking integrates the different elements of a landscape addresses potential trade-offs between production and conservation gives ability to upscale success ADB, 2017 Photo: Mukesh Khugsal Source: van Oosten, 2015 10

Integrated landscape management ILM is multisectoral, multistakeholder and multi-scale; focuses on agro-environmental and governance interactions; applies rights-based principles and considers short and long term perspectives. Source: Petri and Bunning, 2017, under preparation 11

Climate smart landscapes Multiple level interventions where consumer has a say in production systems Source: McNally, 2016 12

Climate smart landscapes thinking 13

Present and future landscape management Through the SAMIS project Future disrupted value chain are presented An exercise of re-planning sustainable future landscape is attempted 14

Resilient Landscapes “Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security” Crop suitability Matching the land characteristics with the crop requirements provides suitability index It involves the evaluation and grouping of specific areas of land in terms of their suitability for defined agricultural use and technologies.

Present and future management - maize 16

Present and future management - coffee 17

One important note This map was produced in 2011 It only used global data It uses the worst possible scenario (IPCC SRES A2) It is being improved significantly by the SAMIS project using new cropland cover and soil map as well as land use types mapping This means that the future of coffee distribution might not be so drastically negative National level scenario will be ready by end of 2020 and then we will have more clear information 18

Discussion 19

Resilient Landscapes “Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security” Future impacts What are the consequences of climate change and the impacts on production? Source: Minang et al., 2015; Scherr, 2013

Resilient Landscapes “Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security” Drastic changes will require drastic interventions, so the discussion cannot focus only in the affected sector Source: van Oosten, 2015

It is difficult It is not an usual way of making government decision Resilient Landscapes “Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security” It is difficult It is not an usual way of making government decision It requires understanding a basic level of modelling It entail accepting the result of a few models, while there are many more models out there It requires thinking about “everything” all at the same time, making it challenging

Discussion results – imagining the future Resilient Landscapes “Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security” Discussion results – imagining the future It entail thinking about examples of futures involving other sectors beyond agriculture It include human behavior and the reaction of the population to market It requires observing current trends in the field (data, capacity development)

Discussion results – imagining the future Resilient Landscapes “Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security” Discussion results – imagining the future Depending on the position of the person that make the assessment, the hypothesis of future can vary infinitely The result of this thinking might not be in line with existing policies

Discussion on developing resilient future landscapes 25

Discussing alternatives for development Resilient Landscapes “Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security” Discussing alternatives for development Landscape is similar to a puzzle, in which all parts are connected, so the absence of one crop modifies the entire system Source: van Oosten, 2015

Alternatives for development Resilient Landscapes “Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security” Alternatives for development What is the selected area for the crops where the situation will change drastically? What is the potential for development in that area, considering the present scenario for 2080? Please discuss and agree What is the length of the necessary re-planning process? Which government entities should be involved? What private sector entity could be involved in this re-planning process? What enabling or policy environment should the government sustain during this re-planning? How would the local population be involved in the planning process?

Discussion results – the development of a climate smart future Resilient Landscapes “Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security” Discussion results – the development of a climate smart future It is even more difficult It requires deciding a temporal envelop that in most country is not usual (i.e. 50 years) or it is not in line with investor interest (i.e. private sector would rarely invest with a 50 year horizon)

Discussion results – the development of a climate smart future (2) Resilient Landscapes “Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security” Discussion results – the development of a climate smart future (2) It is very difficult to think alternatives for the population, the private sector, the civil society It is challenging for the government as the policies requires to be based on thrust of a modelling system

Discussion results – the development of a climate smart future (3) Resilient Landscapes “Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security” Discussion results – the development of a climate smart future (3) It requires political decisions making that are challenging. Who to support, who to move in another area, who will become more or less affected? It might entail big decisions (movement of population to other areas) or technology advances (improving the subsistence farming to a more resilient system). For both cases, it requires to have data about cases and options

Discussion results – the development of a climate smart future (4) Resilient Landscapes “Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security” Discussion results – the development of a climate smart future (4) It has been suggested to test the future development to a few areas that are more affected It has been discussed how the government should be organized to tackle this issue, and which instrument of discussion and decision making should be put in place

Discussion results – the development of a climate smart future (5) Resilient Landscapes “Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security” Discussion results – the development of a climate smart future (5) Most important… It has been agreed that this resilient future planning requires the different sectors to work together (i.e. agriculture, forestry, water)

Resilient Landscapes “Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security” Conclusion The group presented a process that the government is really starting And that is potentially a game changer for Lao PDR One of the most innovative processes of thinking in the context of planning future with roots in impact of climate change in the agricultural sector

www.fao.org/in-action/samis/ Monica.Petri@fao.org Thank You www.fao.org/in-action/samis/ Monica.Petri@fao.org

Scenario IPCC SRES A2 The A2 scenarios are of a more divided world. The A2 family of scenarios is characterized by: A world of independently operating, self-reliant nations. Continuously increasing population. Regionally oriented economic development. The worst possible case... 35

Climate smart landscapes Source: LPFN, 2015 Example in forest areas 36