An Audience with Justin Bronk, Research Fellow, RUSI Brought to you by The Air and Space Power Association

The Disruptors in Airpower Justin Bronk, Airpower and Technology Research Fellow

Insufficient Answers For Existing Disruptors… 3

4th Generation Will Be Around For Ages Trump budget calls for 72 fighters per year Some of those look likely to be F-15EXs Even if ALL are F-35s, still a 50/50 force by 2030 In European Theatre, ratio will be 80/20 on current trends by 2030. Allowing the 4th Gen to ‘keep pace’ is not a luxury, it is a requirement. 4

Datalink Denial: A Fact of Life R-330Zh “Zhitel” Krashuka 4

Disruptor No.1 - UCAVs X-45A Proved Concepts in 2005 Swarming behaviour Armed, live fire tests Extremely effective at SEAD/DEAD Human mission planning, ROE set but NOT remotely flown

Irresistible Advantages Hugely reduced cost of ownership Design flexibility during production and service life Semi-Expendable Reconstitution possible for larger powers Technology feasible today – Policy choices not technology holding this back. Potential for significant improvement in lethality

Automation, Not Autonomy? Mission Set Dependent Suitable for High-Intensity Conflict Not suitable where complex questions of combatant identification required Restricting autonomy is designing in vulnerability to (at best) being ‘mission killed’. ‘If it locks you up with one of these known waveforms or engages you, kill it’.

The Silence of the US

Chinese Intentions Are Clear Sharp Sword Dark Sword CH-7

Su-70 ‘Okhotnik’ (Hunter) 20 Ton class strike UCAV Highly Autonomous, Loyal Wingman or both? Poor engine integration AL-31F with afterburner

UCAV Implications New Industrial Paradigm Possible Deterrence and Crisis Stability Implications Users will make the rules – the ‘haves and have nots’ Notions of Meaningful Human Control playing catch-up Can they be kept in high-intensity scenarios alone? New tactics and institutional structures required to optimise manned/unmanned integration.

Disruptor No.2 - Swarms Will change point defence paradigm Stand in jamming options Range still limited Cost Dependent on launch vehicles Asymmetric weapon

Disruptor No.3 – Directed Energy Weapons Three Main Considerations: GBAD End game platform defence Offensive Usage Main Factors Power and Coolant Available Engagement Window Beam Distortion

Disruptor No.4 – AI Driven Electronic Warfare Data fidelity and labelling becoming a limiting factor for DAS Pace of threat signal evolution outpacing DI-driven ways of working F-35 is the first platform with the required onboard sensor suite, processing power and architecture Double edged sword

Disruptor No.5 – A Return To Large Airframes Drivers: US Air Force and PLAAF Range Multimission payloads Terminal Defence Options UCAV-teaming

Weapons Free!

Any Questions?