Where are we now and what happens next? Yes 26 February: maybe 2nd Meaningful vote? Brexit proceeds Meaningful Vote on the Withdrawal Agreement Rejected No New plan MP’s re-voted on the plan from 2 weeks ago But rejected it 2nd Meaningful voted delayed Extension? MP’s take control? Indicative Votes? Cancel Brexit? Theresa May to update on 26 February MP’s approved UK Gov’s New Plan to Renegotiate and avoid ‘no-deal’ Meaningful vote Week of 14 January. Deadline of 21 January may not be applicable – it could technically take place right before Brexit day to incentivise approving the agreement. Politically expected week of the 14th of Jan however. Crucially, amendments are possible, as the debate was interrupted they will have to be re-tabled. We saw things like opposition to a no deal scenario. If accepted – withdrawal agreement legislation, 2019, orderly exit with transition. If rejected: the UK Government will have to suggest a course of action, and MPs will get to vote on it within 7 days. Uncertainty, depends what is suggested. Dominic Grieve amendment would also allow amendments to be made to the UK Governments suggested course of action if the deal is rejected. Give directions to the UK Government, but there is more uncertainty here because… However: UK Government not legally obliged to do what Parliament asks. We may see further uncertainty and delays due to legal challenges. If the agreement is anything but unequivocally approved, be there substantive or procedural amendments, we could end up seeing legal disputes. What constitutes approval for section 13 of the withdrawal act? This is not necessarily clear. Withdrawal Agreement legislation can be introduced even before the meaningful vote – this might be used as a way of circumventing the meaningful vote, but would ultimately require parliamentary approval anyway. Last round of votes 13 Feb 2019 26 February If no MV then she will make a statement 27 February MPs to table amendments and vote No deal?

Brexit and Third Sector Organisations Short term - potential disruption Long term – perfect storm of increased need and lower resources Less funding / economic downturn to hit worst off first EU Settlement Scheme – risk to vulnerable people EU Staff Members? EU Volunteers? Suppliers? Community cohesion Disability Equality and human rights… Implications variable depending on scenario – can’t cover them all, but will go over some cross-cutting points here.

Brexit and Third Sector Organisations Easy to assume Brexit won’t impact you or to think ‘let’s wait and see’. Have you thought about ‘2nd order impact’? What supplier’s suppliers? If you work with vulnerable people, will their needs increase due to impacts on health services? Wellbeing impacted by settlement scheme? Plan for No-deal impact: data protection, customs and VAT, medical contingencies, emergency planning Implications variable depending on scenario – can’t cover them all, but will go over some cross-cutting points here. + Not just your own organisation – but partners, communities, suppliers, places you refer to, food banks, medical services…

Empowering Communities in the Context of Brexit The project will help us understand: how the Brexit process may impact on the delivery of community services the financial viability of the organisations delivering these services the makeup and stability of the workforce This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA-NC This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA

www.BrexitForumWales.org Charles Whitmore - whitmorecd@cardiff.ac.uk Any Brexit related questions? Please get in touch – that’s what we are here for! We also provide briefings, joint events, podcasts, resources, a short weekly Brexit update newsletter… The project is here for the sector – so please let us know how we can help.