EURODELTA 3 – Trend Analysis Experiment Overview A. Colette, K. Cuvelier, S. Aksoyoglu, B. Bessagnet, J. Bieser, G. Ciarelli, H. Fagerli, M. Garcia, L. Gonzales, M. Mircea, M.T. Pay, V. Raffort, L. Rouïl, Y. Roustan, M. Schaap, R. Stern, P. Thunis, S. Tsyro, L. White, P. Wind augustin.colette@ineris.fr

Scope Why Effectiveness of AQ Policies Relevance and ability of models What Simulations of 1990, 2000, 2010 Sensitivity analyses (emissions, meteorology, boundary conditions) 20-yr trend Who EMEP + 6 CTMs: CMAQ, CHIMERE, LOTOS-EUROS, MINNI, POL’AIR3D, WRF-Chem

Modelling Setup Consensus specifications: Domain (25km) Meteorology (WRF/ERA-interim) Emissions (GAINS) Boundary Conditions (Obs) Output format For more details, see: https://wiki.met.no/emep/emep-experts/tfmmtrendeurodelta ED3-Trends

Emissions: National Totals Initial plan: CEIP « as used in EMEP models » + GAINS gap-filling for PM in the 1990s Change March 2015 for GAINS / ECLIPSE-V5 GAINS national totals (updated after TSAP2013) NOx, Europe PPM25, Europe

Emission: Spatialisation Provided by INERIS Europe-wide road and shipping proxies for SNAP7 and 8 (constant for 20yrs) Population density proxy for residential emissions (constant for 20yrs) EPRTR for industrial sources location and magnitude (time varying over the past 20yrs). Bottom-up emission inventories as spatialisation proxies for France & United Kingdom. TNO-MACC inventory for NH3 emissions Reconstructed default (except for traffic&road) from officially reported data PPM10 All sectors

Workplan Tier # years Experiment Key question Tier 1 1A   Experiment Key question Tier 1 1A Reference for 1990, 2000, 2010 How do model compare with observation in 1990, 2000, and 2010 ? 5 yrs -> Comparison 1A & OBS 1B Meteorology and boundary conditions of 2010 emissions of 1990, 2000 What if no emission change occurred in Europe ? ->  Comparison 1A vs. 1B Tier 2 2A Meteorology & emissions of 2010 boundary conditions of 1990, 2000 What if no emission changed in Europe ? ->  Comparison 2A vs. 1B 2B Meteorology & emissions of 2010 modelled boundary conditions of 1990, 2000, 2010 What is the uncertainty related to boundary conditions ? ->  Comparison 2A & 2B Tier 3 3A 21-yr reference trend How do model capture the trend in observations ? 38 yrs ->  Comparison 3A & OBS 3B 21-yr trend with 2010 emissions Does meteorological variability contribute to the AQ trend over the past 20 yrs? ->  Comparison 3A & 3B

Timeline INPUT MODEL ANALYSIS Agreement on workplan and specs. Delivery of Domain, Meteo & Model Boun. Cond Delivery of 2010 Obs. Boun. Cond. & Emissions Delivery of 1990&2000 Obs. Boun. Cond. & Emissions MODEL deliver 2010 ref to the server deliver Tier 1 to the server deliver Tier 2 to the server deliver Tier 3 to the server ANALYSIS Validation of reference setup (2010) Analysis of Tier 1 Analysis of Tier 2&3 21/01/2015 21/01/2015 31/01/2015 25/03/2015 28/02/2015 28/02/2015 31/03/2015 10/04/2015 17/04/2015 15/03/2015 3/04/2015 30/06/2015 05/05/2015 30/09/2015 31/12/2015

NO2 (µg/m3): 1990, 2000, 2010 & annual change 3-model median tier 1A Substantial decrease Largest annual rate of change in 1990’s, except over large urban areas where decreases are important in the 2000s Very little change in Eastern Countries over 2000s 1990-2010 1990-2000 2000-2010

PM10 (µg/m3): 1990, 2000, 2010 & annual change 3-model median tier 1A Substantial decrease Largest annual rate of change in the 1990’s 1990-2010 1990-2000 2000-2010

Key Questions Model validation How do model compare with observations in 1990, 2000, and 2010 ? How do models capture the trend in observations ? For 2010: expand on ED3-campaign work (link with AQMEII) Can we conclude on the uncertainties in emissions? European policy effectiveness What if no emission change occurred in Europe ? Did “potency” changed over the past 20yrs? Can we identify tipping points in SIA formation? Non-European influence What if no emission changed beyond Europe ? What is the uncertainty related to boundary conditions ? How can we avoid double-counting? (link with TF-HTAP) Meteorological variability Does meteorological variability contribute to the AQ trend over the past 20 yrs? Impacts What model dynamical evaluation means for IAM? Link with effect community (health & ecosystems) Trends in aerosols direct radiative forcing

Modelling Domain Regular lat/lon projection Resolution of dlat=0.25 and dlon=0.4, (about 25km). ED3-Trends ED3-Campaings Euro-Cordex

Meteorology Rationale ECMWF/IFS was used for recent Campaign analyses Need to find a consistent 1990-2010 meteorological driver EuroCordex Reanalysis Hindcast with perfect boundary conditions (ERA-interim) 1989-2012 Used to evaluate regional climate models (Kotlarski et al., GMD 2014) WRF Optimised & nudged configuration Provided by Robert Vautard & Annemiek Stegehuis (LSCE/IPSL) Namelist + Data available on ftp&dods server Used by all modelling teams except: WRF-CHEM: online (similar setup) CMAQ: projection issues, re-running identical setup LOTOS-EUROS (RACMO)

Boundary conditions Observation-based, provided by met.no, simplified version of MSC-W O3: Logan 3D climatology, matched to Mace Head temporal variability accounting for wind sectors CH4=1870ppb CCMI Global Model reanalysis CamChem simulation available, will be used for sensitivity simulation Observation courtesy of Peter Simmonds and Gerry Spain, and Model results courtesy of Thierno Doumbia, Katerina Sindelarova, Claire Granier

Emissions: other sources Switch off: European dust resuspension (keep desert dust inflow at the boundaries) Forest fire No constrain on: Biogenic emissions Temporal and VOC speciation profiles provided but not-compulsory