* Reframing SDGs from a Resource Perspective: Understanding the Imperative of Greater Resource Productivity John A. “Skip” Laitner In Conversation with Gaidar Forum/SDSN-Russia Colleagues Rethinking Resource Demands Moscow, Russia January 17, 2019 * In the spirit and tradition of Nobel Laureate and former Caltech physicist Richard Feynman, in his 1959 visionary talk, “There’s Plenty of Room at the Bottom.” See, http://www.its.caltech.edu/~feynman/plenty.html.

Understanding: (i) the scale of the problem, (ii) the wholly inefficient use of resources, and (iii) the effort needed to meet all SDGs Globally, we live more by waste than ingenuity which limits the possibilities of meeting all 17 goals, and It will require greater policy and program expenditures, as well as much greater levels of investment, to support the SDGs. Yet, the benefits of a more robust, sustainable, and resilient global economy may compensate, by at least twice (likely more), the magnitude of costs. At the same time, the failure to pursue and achieve all 17 goals may result in a more fragmented, and a less robust and less sustainable economy.

Comparing the Resource Impact of the Global Economy Over Time (where GDP is a proxy for volume of resources used to support the economy) The scale of the 1950 global economy The scale of the 2018 global economy The cumulative impact of the global economy over the years 1950 through 2018: ~351 times 1950 level

Living more by waste than ingenuity ? By 2050 the Cumulative Volume may be ~1,056 times the 1950 Global Economy The scale of the 1950 global economy The scale of the 2018 global economy The cumulative impact of the global economy over the years 1950 through 2018: ~351 times 1950 level Example? Energy 1.6 trillion TCE – 80+% wasted Living more by waste than ingenuity ?

Conventional assumptions about the efficiency potential Exploring the full energy efficiency potential: ~900 or more billion barrels of oil equivalent for the Global Economy through the year 2050. Enough to reduce total World energy consumption by ~40%! MORE BY WASTE THAN INGENUITY? With the prospect for a more robust, a more resilient and a more sustainable economy. . . …an anemic ~16% Global energy (in)efficiency Source: Adapted from Smart Policies and Programs as Critical Drivers. https://tinyurl.com/yb64apo7

Since the Rio Summit in 1992... The global economy has averaged ~1.6% energy productivity gains per year!

Given 1.6% efficiency, what is. . . ~$27,347,234,044,068 A working estimate of the energy bill savings in the global economy (cumulatively lost) since the 1992 Rio Summit, by not adopting smart energy policies averaging 3% energy productivity gains per year! As of December 31, 2018. . .

* Or perhaps the equivalent of ~11.9 trillion refrigerators. And with that? What is... * ~1,246,105,030,310 My working estimate of the number of cars equivalent that have been dumped into the global atmosphere as a result of CO2 emissions since 1751 Again, as of December 31, 2018. . . * Or perhaps the equivalent of ~11.9 trillion refrigerators.

The Need for Programs and Policies to Drive Global Benefits Example: Global Policy, Program & Investment Costs to Drive Large Energy Savings For every €3.50 of lower energy costs there must be about €1.00 in program and investment costs! Source: Laitner et al. (2018) for IPEEC: Smart Policies and Programs as Critical Drivers. https://tinyurl.com/yb64apo7

The difficulty lies not with the new ideas, but in escaping the old ones. . . John Maynard Keynes

Contact Information John A. “Skip” Laitner Senior Research Economist Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) Principal, Resource Economist and Consultant Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates Past-President Association for Environmental Studies and Sciences (AESS) Cell: +1 571 332 94 34 Email: EconSkip@gmail.com Web: https://theresourceimperative.com/