Carl van Walraven, MD, MSc, Alan J. Forster, MD, MSc

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The HOMR-Now! Model Accurately Predicts 1-Year Death Risk for Hospitalized Patients on Admission Carl van Walraven, MD, MSc, Alan J. Forster, MD, MSc The American Journal of Medicine Volume 130, Issue 8, Pages 991.e9-991.e16 (August 2017) DOI: 10.1016/j.amjmed.2017.03.008 Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Influence of admission urgency, number of previous emergency visits and life-table annual death risk on expected 1-year death probability from the Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR)-now! model. These figures display the influence of all continuous variables that were transformed or interacted significantly with other covariates in the HOMR-now! model (Supplementary Table 4, Appendix, available online). These figures plot the 1-year death risk from the model (vertical axis) against the life-table 1-year death probability (left plot) and the number of emergency department (ED) visits in the previous year. The risks presented in both of these figures are those for female patients with a Charlson score of 0 and no cancer clinic visits in the previous 6 months who were admitted to a medicine service between 2006 and 2010 with a laboratory abnormality physiological score of 14. In the left plot, patients had no ED visits in the previous year. In the right plot, patients were admitted electively and had a life-table 1-year death probability of 1%. The American Journal of Medicine 2017 130, 991.e9-991.e16DOI: (10.1016/j.amjmed.2017.03.008) Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Observed vs expected 1-year death risk. The observed 1-year death probability (vertical axis) is plotted against the expected probability (horizontal axis). The heavy line presents the median value from 500 bootstrap samples and is flanked by the 2.5th and 97.5th credible interval (the latter is obscured by the median line in much of the plot). The unity line (dotted) represents perfect agreement between observed and expected risk. The American Journal of Medicine 2017 130, 991.e9-991.e16DOI: (10.1016/j.amjmed.2017.03.008) Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. Terms and Conditions