GSICS User Expectations at Met Office Font: Arial only Bullets: Arial round Front page slide Headline text point size 53 Subtitle text point size 20 Presenter, location and date point size 12 Divider slides Should be used to break up subjects or when changing content Headline text point size 40 Content slides Headline text size: minimum 40 First Level Bullet Points 24 Subsequent Level; Bullet Points 20 Body text size: minimum 16 Printing Please select greyscale when printing, this will remove the backgrounds and save on ink. Colour Web safe green #CFF33 (R204, G255, B51), can be used to highlight important words or phrases. Web safe red #ED2939 (R237, G41, B57), can be used to highlight severe weather warnings Campaign presentations If your presentation is part of a campaign or event then please ask the studio for assistance GSICS User Expectations at Met Office Roger Saunders and Viju John © Crown copyright Met Office

European Summer Temperatures Observed temperatures Simulated temperatures 2060s 2040s 2003 Observed Summer temperatures over land for Europe from CRUTEM3 (Western Europe west of 20E) Model Simulations, HadGEM1. 3 Ensembles of Anthropogenic+natural forced simulations. From 2000 2 ensembles forced with A2 and A1B scenario. Summer 2003: normal by 2040s, cool by 2060s Stott Nature 2004 – updated to 2007 – HadGEM1 © Crown copyright Met Office

Satellite data in climate monitoring : e. g Satellite data in climate monitoring : e.g. validating modelled temperature trends Lower stratosphere Lower troposphere From US Climate Change Science Program: Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.1 April 2006. © Crown copyright Met Office

Uses of satellite data at the Hadley Centre Climate monitoring and attribution (CDRs) to ascertain decadal and longer term changes To develop, constrain and validate climate models thus gaining confidence in projections of future change Input to reanalyses (e.g. ERA-CLIM, EURRA) Seasonal and decadal model initialisation (ocean, land surface, stratosphere) Coupled ocean-atmosphere data assimilation To identify biases in current and past in situ measurements (e.g. buoys with ATSR) © Crown copyright Met Office

CLIMETOP Data archive © Crown copyright Met Office

TOVS/ATOVS satellite data 1978-2002 Year © Crown copyright Met Office

HadIR Project Provide >30 years of homogenised all-sky IR radiances to: Use operational atmospheric sounders Quantify and reduce uncertainty in temperature and humidity changes aloft. Assess model simulations of recent climate accounting for both model and observational uncertainty. Estimate all-sky (and clear-sky) long-wave feedbacks. Contribute to the next generation reanalysis projects (e.g. ERA-CLIM, EURRA) © Crown copyright Met Office

Climate monitoring using GPS radio occultation bending angles Bending angle trends at the equator Zonal Mean change in bending angle at 2050 26 km 20 km 12 km Height SP NP This study indicates that trends in bending angle could be detectable above natural climate variability within 10 – 15 years. Ringer and Healy 2008, GRL © Crown copyright Met Office