Future of Computers Moore’s Law

ANTIKYTHERA MECHANISM

Charles Babbage

Difference Engine by Charles Babbage (1822)

Eniac - 1946

1950 - 1970’s Transistors

Gordon Moore, Co Founder Intel “Moore’s Law”

Moore’s Law Gordon Moore, Co Founder of Intel Corporation, noted in the 1960’s that computer processing power doubles every 18 months. This trend has continued for the last 40 Years!!! Scientists believe that it will continue at that rate for several more decades to come AT LEAST 20Yrs, BUT MORE LIKELY FOR 30Yrs into the future!!!

Intel 4004 first widespread available microprocessor (2,300) switches 1970’s

The Power of Doubling has EXPONENTIAL Growth So, What does exponential mean? It means that the further in time you go the faster and the faster it accelerates. So, What!!!! You say I’m Bored Mr. G Well, Let me explain. Watch This!!!!

So What, Mr. G

Would Take Up an Entire Room SUCH AS A GYMNASIUM!!! 50’s Computer Would Take Up an Entire Room SUCH AS A GYMNASIUM!!!

Year #0 1960 1

1 Year 6 Months 1960’s 2

3 Years 1960’s 4

4 Years 6 Months 1960’s 8

6 Years 1960’s 16

7 Years 6 Months 1960’s 32

9 Years 1960’s 64

10 Years 6 Months 1970 on the MOON 128

12 Years 1970’s 256

13 Years 6 Months 1970’s 512

15 Years 1970’s 1,024

16 Years 6 Months 1970’s 2,048

18 Years 1970’s 4,096

19 Years 6 Months 1980 8,192

21 Years 1980’s 16,192

22 Years 6 Months 1980’s 32,768

24 Years 1980’s 65,536

25 Years 6 Months 1980’s 131,072

27 Years 1980’s 262,144

28 Years 6 Months 1980’s 524,288

30 Years 1990 1,048,576

31 Years 6 Months 1990’s 2,097,152

33 Years 1990’s 4,194,304

34 Years 6 Months 1990’s 8,388,608

36 Years 1990’s 16,777,216

37 Years 6 Months 1990’s 33,554,432

39 Years 1990’s 67,108,864

40 Years 6 Months 2000 134,217,728

42 Years 2000’s 268,436,456

43 Years 6 Months 2000’s 536,870,912

45 Years 2000’s 1,073,741,824

46 Years 6 Months 2000’s 2,147,483,648

48 Years Today!!! 4,294,967,296

This Is Were We Are Today A Fast and Expensive Computer $5,000 To $10,000 computer of today might have up to 20 Gigahertz(GHz) My Laptop is a 5.2GHz The Computers in Front of You are 5.2GHz

The Computers in This Room Have the Brain Power of a Frog!

Yeh, OK computers have gotten faster. What’s that got to due with Me?

1 Year 6 Months 8,589,934,592

3 Years 17,179,869,184

4 Year 6 Months 34,359,738,368

6 Years 68,719,476,736

7 Years 6 Months 137,438,953,472

9 Years 274,877,906,944

10 Years 6 Months 549,755,813,888

12 Years 1,099,511,627,776

13 Years 6 Months 2,199,023,255,552

15 Years 4,398,046,511,104

16 Years 6 Months 8,796,093,022,208

18 Years 17,592,186,044,416

19 Years 6 Months 35,184,372,088,832

19 Years 6 Months 35,184,372,088,832

21 Years 70,368,744,177,664

22 Years 6 Months 140,737,488,355,328

24 Years 281,474,976,710,656

25 Years 6 Months 562,949,953,421,312

27 Years 1,125,899,906,842,624

28 Years 6 Months 2,251,799,813,685,248

30 Years 4,503,599,627,370,496

Today = 5GHz and has the Brain Power of a Frog. In 30 Years = 4,503,599GHz. Which means it would take 2 million of the computers in front of you to equal one PC 30 years from now. It should be 30 years before the doubling slows. That’s two stacks from here to the Moon and then you would have to start a third stack. How smart might that computer that powerful be?

That’s Way More Brain Power Than a Human Has!!! Actually that’s more brain power than all humans on this planet added together!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Would we consider it to be alive or just a machine? Might it have feelings, and how might it feel about us?

So What Mr. Gravitt So what!!! It means that today's Multi Billion Dollar Supercomputer will someday be in a watch that your kids could buy at the dollar store. You need to realize we have the robots today, but they do not have the brains to be really useful.

Dropping Costs This Computer Chip only cost around $0.60 to manufacture The costs of new chips comes from the research and development of newer and faster chips You can purchase new older model chips cheaply

Oh Really, So What So, for instance one day Robotics might very well resemble something from a Sci-Fi Movie.

Are you going to be ready to compete for a job against me?