Daniela Miteva Brian Murray Subhrendu Pattanayak Duke University

Non-random location of protected areas Tend to be established on rock and ice Spillover effects Extraction activities may be displaced to the buffer zones or other unprotected nearby areas Different levels of protection IUCN categories I-VI Enforcement

Methodology Need to compare protected units with observationally similar unprotected units This yields only an average estimate of the impact Test for heterogeneity of the impact Outcomes Ecosystem structure vs. function

*Indigenous reserves and wetlands excluded

**The study selected 5 % of each countrys PA (treatment) and an area 4 times as large to serve as control

Do the protected areas in Indonesia protect habitats and ecosystem services? Does the impact of protected areas vary with the characteristics of the area? Where do the tradeoffs and complementarities occur in space? This is still very much work in progress…

Biophysical characteristics Location (distance to ports by type; proximity to district capitals, mills and markets; slope, elevation, river length, urban vs. rural) Climate (average temperature & precipitation, aridity index, organic content and pH levels of the soils) Socio-economic (road length, number, area and type of timber concessions, population density, village accessibility) Protected Areas (IUCN categories I-IV)

Provision of multiple ecosystem services Blue carbon sequestration Habitat for species Storm protection Very rapid loss of mangroves in Indonesia Cut for timber Cleared for aquaculture & agriculture Image source: /

Propensity score matching (PSM) to identify observationally similar protected and unprotected villages Does not rely on a specific functional form Reduces the dimensionality of the matching Partial Linear Models (PLM) Sensitivity analysis & robustness checks

Semi-parametric regression of the form Estimated in 2 stages Least squares on m -th order difference to estimate Non-parametric (loess) estimation for Properties Allows some variables to enter non-parametrically Reduces the dimensionality of the problem Consistent estimation for, but the efficiency depends on the order of differencing (m)

Protected areas do not seem to protect forests: ATT=20.91, t=0.47 Hard to match the very high propensity scores The impact varies CovariateCoefficient Organic content in the topsoil *** (5.811) Forest area at baseline 0.076*** (0.007) Distance to the nearest mill (m) ** (0.001) Length of the river network (m) 0.015*** (0.004) *** 1%, ** 5%, *10% R2=0.19, n=2214

Deforestation P<0.01

Protected areas do not seem to protect mangrove patches, either (ATT=-0.14, t=-0.17) Hard to match the very high propensity scores The impact varies CovariateCoefficient Aridity index ** (0.0002) Mangrove baseline *** (0.0137) Average slope (degrees) ** (0.2705) Distance to market w/ permanent structures * (0.0236) *** 1%, ** 5%, *10% R2=0.4, n=139

Mangrove loss P=0.001

Very preliminary results Have not looked at the year the PA was established Have not considered spatial spillovers Numerous ecosystem services still to be analyzed Dealing with decentralization in Indonesia Constant changes of the administrative units at all levels Institutional drivers of change Using geospatial data Raster resolution introduces errors in the dependent & independent variables

Andam, K. S., P. J. Ferraro, et al. (2008). "Measuring the Effectiveness of Protected Area Networks in Reducing Deforestation." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105(42): Andam, K. S., P. J. Ferraro, et al. (2010). "Protected Areas Reduced Poverty in Costa Rica and Thailand." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107(22): Chape, S., J. Harrison, et al. (2005). "Measuring the Extent and Effectiveness of Protected Areas as an Indicator for Meeting Global Biodiversity Targets." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 360(1454): Das, S. and J. R. Vincent (2009). "Mangroves protected villages and reduced death toll during Indian super cyclone." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106(18): Ferraro, P. and M. Hanauer (2011). "Protecting Ecosystems and Alleviating Poverty with Parks and Reserves: WinWin or Tradeoffs?" Environmental and Resource Economics 48(2): Ferarro, P., M. Hanauer and K. Sims (Forthcoming). Conditions associated with protected area success in conservation and poverty alleviation, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Ferraro, P. J. and S. K. Pattanayak (2006). "Money for Nothing? A Call for Empirical Evaluation of Biodiversity Conservation Investments." PLoS Biol 4(4): e105. Joppa, L. and A. Pfaff (2010). "Reassessing the Forest Impacts of Protection." Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1185(1): Nagendra, H. (2008). "Do Parks Work? Impact of Protected Areas on Land Cover Clearing." AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment 37(5): NaughtonTreves, L., M. B. Holland, et al. (2005). "The Role of Protected Areas in Conserving Biodiversity and Sustaining Local Livelihoods." Annual Review of Environment and Resources 30(1): 21925

Decade IUCN Category Total IaIbIIIIIIV Prior to s s s s s s s s After Total *Only the ones that have been formally designated as such; categories V and VI have also been excluded from the analysis