The Future of COSMIC Where do we go from here?

COSMIC Situation PRO CON Two highly successful missions Great operational processing track record World standard for RO processing quality Strong science results NOAA operational link NCAR science link Community support (web / workshop etc.) Little satellite / receiver hardware experience Increasing competition from other centers No mission of “our own” COSMIC II not before end of 2013 - also not 100% certain Little involvement with new technologies (x-link / reflections) Changes at NSF (uncertain) Budget climate

Clearly COSMIC should …. become a multi-mission processing center process the data for COSMIC follow-on when they become available continue research into improving algorithms develop application-specific products continue to conduct application research (examples ABL detection, RO trends, climate biases) continue to support NOAA in preparing for COSMIC follow-on continue COSMIC I processing All of this (except maybe COSMIC I processing) will be part of the next 5-year NSF proposal

Multi-mission Processing Center key to using RO for climate research challenging to (re)process / organize different mission COSMIC is uniquely well positioned for this Algorithm development Biases in LT (overcoming limitations ..) Extending useful profiles above 40 km Optimized processing for different applications

.. but should we also get involved in new mission (x-link, other higher frequency, or surface reflection) ? become mission coordination center (develop standard formats, coordinate downlink, offer processing software, aid mission design, …) ? get involved in receiver development - what do we have to offer here ? propose / conduct other “out of the box” science investigations ? These activities are currently not planned to be included in the NSF proposal - if we want to do them how shall we go about it ?

New Missions X-link involvement is likely if Kursinski joins COSMIC - we can contribute to processing … Reflection/Scatterometry - still not clear what science can be extracted - altimetry? surface atmospheric values? surface moisture? surface winds? PWV (like ground-based obs. …)? GFZ will fly a mission, no other planned missions known. Is it possible to track coherent phase from reflections? Mars ionosphere - were asked to participate in an Indian Mars mission (ionsopheric RO) - present status unclear (COSMIC group was only mildly interested) RO Research Mission - Fly high gain antenna, low noise receiver to push up the height of stratospheric soundings and reduce the LT biases

Receiver development This work is done at JPL, BRE and elsewhere … but GFZ is modifying commercial receivers for RO and reflections UCAR could get involved in something similar The new TriG receiver will have user-programmable part - we could (a) specify what must be available and (b) look into programming applications for OL and reflection work

New Research Projects Investigate if ionospheric correction can be improved with additional frequencies Investigate if higher frequency transmissions are available (to reduce iono noise correct iono. biases / consider limitations of POD) Investigate the “EQ prediction” claims with rigorous statistical methods New climatology (averaged bending angle inversion) correction of ionospheric biases

Summary COSMIC I will continue until 2012 and beyond and COSMIC is in good funding shape for a 2-3 years We also have some funded non-COSMIC research projects (COSMIC/AIRS, MetOp, …) Focus right now on: (a) COSMIC II, (b) next NSF proposal If we want to get involved in new missions / hardware development / “non-core” science then we probably need to invest (time and new staff) within the next 1-2 years