Ecological Forecasting Extending NOAA’s prediction and assessment mission to coastal and marine ecosystems. Notes Dr. Donald Scavia National Ocean Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration January 6, 2003

NOAA Context for Ecological Forecasting Outline Research Needs Presentation Outline NOAA Context for Ecological Forecasting Outline Research Needs Notes

Why Forecasts? The Power of Prediction … The Limits of Prediction … “Knowing” impacts improves decisions. Notes Uncertainties set the science agenda.

What is an Ecological Forecast? The “Bio-Physical” Challenge “In terms of conventional physics, the grouse represents only a millionth of either the mass or energy of an acre. Yet, subtract the grouse and the whole thing is dead.” Aldo Leopold, 1948 “In anything at all, perfection is finally attained not when there is on longer anything to add, but when there is no longer anything to take away.” Antoine de Saint-Exupery, 1940 Dictionary definition of forecasting – note it is far broader than what usually comes to mind when you use weather forecasting as an analogy. A better analogy is probably economic forecasting because: it comes in more forms (e.e, tomorrow’s stock market, monthly/quarterly projections, long-term economic trends) in a wider range of time frames and geographic scales (local employment projections, national indicators of trade, etc) and from a range of methodologies that include numerical computer forecasts, but also rely on more qualitative and correlative tools. A broad definition for Ecological Forecasts.

Drivers of Ecosystem Change From CENR There are five key drivers of ecosystem change extreme natural events (e.g. flood, drought, fire, storms, harmful algal blooms) climate change (e.g temperature, weather and ocean current patterns, storm frequency and intensity) pollution (chemical: nutrients, toxic chemicals; biological: disease, pathogens, physical: sediment) invasive species (intentional and unintentional introductions) Resource and land use (harvests, extraction, development) Rarely do they act independently. Most often, we have to deal with them in combination and the cumulative effects are rarely simple linear combinations! Most are also complex combinations of natural processes (eg fire) and human actions (development, burn policies). With that in mind, let’s turn to what role science plays in influence the way human actions are managed. It is in this context that it is important to remember that we really don’t manage ecosystems – we manage people who impact them.

Relevant Time and Space scales. Time Scale of Ecosystem Response There are five key drivers of ecosystem change extreme natural events (e.g. flood, drought, fire, storms, harmful algal blooms) climate change (e.g temperature, weather and ocean current patterns, storm frequency and intensity) pollution (chemical: nutrients, toxic chemicals; biological: disease, pathogens, physical: sediment) invasive species (intentional and unintentional introductions) Resource and land use (harvests, extraction, development) Rarely do they act independently. Most often, we have to deal with them in combination and the cumulative effects are rarely simple linear combinations! Most are also complex combinations of natural processes (eg fire) and human actions (development, burn policies). With that in mind, let’s turn to what role science plays in influence the way human actions are managed. It is in this context that it is important to remember that we really don’t manage ecosystems – we manage people who impact them. From CENR

Focus on Two Classes Weather Forecast Analogies Short-term, local scales Integrated Assessment Contexts Longer-term, regional scales These forecasts play out on a wide range of time and space scales. One way to view those is to look at how the 5 key drivers of change play out in time and space. extreme natural events like fire and HABs tend to be local to regional and short term whereas climate change plays out on longer time frames and larger spatial scales pollution is impacts play out on the widest range of scales When considering the needs of forecasts, we have to recognize these differences in attention to time and geography.

Weather Forecast Analogs Time Scale of Ecosystem Response Chesapeake Bay Sea Nettle Nowcasts Florida and Gulf of Maine HAB Forecasts These forecasts play out on a wide range of time and space scales. One way to view those is to look at how the 5 key drivers of change play out in time and space. extreme natural events like fire and HABs tend to be local to regional and short term whereas climate change plays out on longer time frames and larger spatial scales pollution is impacts play out on the widest range of scales When considering the needs of forecasts, we have to recognize these differences in attention to time and geography. Weather Forecast Analogs

Integrated Assessments A Formal bridge to policy Document Status and Trends Describe Causes and Consequences of Trends Predict Future Outcomes Under Action Options Provide guidance for Potential Actions Notes A key weak point in most Integrated Assessments is Step #3: Ecological Forecasting

Time Scale of Ecosystem Response Input for Assessments Time Scale of Ecosystem Response Step 3 in Integrated Assessments Water Allocation impacts on oysters. MS Basin Land Use impacts on Gulf hypoxia. Controls of seagrass recovery. Sea-level rise impacts on coastal ecosystems. These forecasts play out on a wide range of time and space scales. One way to view those is to look at how the 5 key drivers of change play out in time and space. extreme natural events like fire and HABs tend to be local to regional and short term whereas climate change plays out on longer time frames and larger spatial scales pollution is impacts play out on the widest range of scales When considering the needs of forecasts, we have to recognize these differences in attention to time and geography.

Research Needs Reduce uncertainty in forecasts of: marine ecosystem variability estuarine susceptibility coastal climate impacts Key gaps in process understanding Science in the Integrated Assessment Framework

Reduce Uncertainty in Marine Ecosystem Forecasts Long-Term Ecological Monitoring Advanced monitoring technologies Data Assimilative Models Emphasis on low frequency change Coupled bio/physical models Dynamics-based ecosystem indices Process Research on Recruitment Variability Bio-physical controls Spatial interactions (aka marine reserves) Ecosystem-based Management Strategies Including social and economic constraints

Reduce Uncertainty in Forecasts of Estuarine Susceptibility Long-Term Ecological Monitoring Advanced monitoring technologies Data Assimilative Estuary Models Response to loads (esp. nutrients) Physical constraints (flushing, etc) Move away from “uniqueness” paradigm Focus on Multiple Stresses Changes in nutrient loads Climate changes (T, H2O load) Better models of watershed processes Agricultural systems Groundwater, wetlands, riparian zones

Reduce Uncertainty in Forecasts of Coastal Climate Impacts Sea Level Rise/Land Subsidence/Storms Changes in H2O/sediment delivery Rates of wetland inundation Impacts of fragmentation and loss Sea Surface Temperature; Dissolved CO2 Coral distribution and survival Changing Precipitation Patterns Altered nutrient loads, salinity, stability Ocean circulation & Temperature patterns Species distribution (fisheries, invasives) Recruitment processes

Key Process Lacunae Modeling linked C & N cycles Coastal Eutrophication denitrification; reduce production Climate Change NOx release; C-sequestration What initiates Harmful Algal Blooms? What controls marine species invasions?

Integrated Assessments Context Document Status and Trends Ecosystem Observing Systems Describe Causes and Consequences of Trends Integrated Natural and Social Sciences Predict Future Outcomes Under Action Options Ecological Forecasting “Big scary” and simple models Assimilative; uncertainty quantified Provide guidance for Potential Actions With social and economic constraints

Ecological Forecasting Extending NOAA’s prediction and assessment mission to coastal and marine ecosystems. Notes Dr. Donald Scavia National Ocean Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration January 6, 2003