What is our Vision for Decadal Climate Research in the WCRP?

Broad interests in decadal climate variability and prediction WGSIP Sub-seasonal to (inter)annual prediction WGCM Forced climate change and natural variability CMIP Coordinated experimentation including scenarios, decadal prediction …. CLIVAR “Focus” on decadal variability and predictability Ocean aspects, initialization Grand Challenge of Near Term Climate Prediction research and development leading toward operational annual, multi-annual forecasts IPCC Near term climate a focus of AR5 and expected to be an important contribution to AR6 DCPP Decadal climate prediction project currently reports to WGSIP and WGCM, is an endorsed CMIP MIP and has connections to all groups Grand Challenge WGCM WGSIP CMIP CLIVAR

Where does a decadal climate fit? day-week week-year year -decade decade-century Weather forecasting Sub-seasonal seasonal Decadal climate Climate simulation At least currently, approaches and results depend on timescale: atmosphere/land/ocean initialization, ensemble generation resolution of models, ensemble size independent realizations, start dates external forcing, drift etc.

Where does a decadal climate fit? WGSIP WGCM WGNE Decadal Climate Decadal variability and prediction: - annual, multi-annual, up to a decade or two - initialized forecasts of both forced and internally generated components of variability

An Example of Overlap DCVP focus group 50% of membership in common across DCPP and DCVP >50% of NTCP part of DCPP, DCVP

Reorganization/renewal of Panel presumably basic organization not changing (for now) what should we consider for reorganization/renewal who wants to cycle off/has not been active? what of reduction of “overlap”? do we have sufficient representation from major modelling groups? what special knowledge on “end-to-end” aspects of decadal prediction does the panel need? initialization, ensemble generation prediction and predictability bias adjustment, combination, calibration, verification users?